Event: Xiamen Cinda released its annual report for 2015, with revenue of 29.3 billion yuan, an increase of 11% over the same period last year, and net profit of 110 million yuan, down 32% from the same period last year.
Comments:
Sudden exchange gains and losses lead to lower-than-expected performance and have little impact on future performance. The 15Q3 RMB exchange rate fluctuated sharply, with the biggest one-day decline on August 11, 2015. Xiamen Cinda's annual trade volume is about 30 billion yuan, and this rare rapid devaluation has intensified the company's exchange losses, which reached 156 million yuan in 2015, an increase of about 100 million yuan over the same period last year. Unexpected events led to the company's net profit of 101 million yuan, lower than expected, the impact of emergencies on the follow-up performance can be ignored.
The financial services business is on the right track, and the monthly net profit of Qianhai bill platform is as high as 6.29 million yuan. According to the company's annual report, the profit contributed by Haijin to the company before 2015 is 6.29 million yuan, considering that the consolidation time is only 12 months, which shows the strong profitability of Qianhai Financial Services platform. We expect the net profit of Qianhai Financial Services to be about 40 million from July to December 2015. It is estimated that the net profit in 2016 and 2017 will be 120 million yuan and 240 million yuan respectively.
Investment in the financial industry continues to rise, and it can be expected in the future. Recently, Xiamen Cinda has successively invested in Qianhai Financial Services (200 million yuan, 28.7% equity), Xiamen Sanan Cinda Financial Leasing Company (500 million yuan, 51% equity), Dashang Road (150 million yuan, 15% equity) and other companies. we expect that the financial industry will become an important pole of Xiamen Cinda and will greatly improve the operating efficiency and capacity of the company in the future.
Large financial groups of block trading platforms + Internet financial services institutions are on their way. The company and Maike Metal and other seven parties jointly invested in the establishment of Dashangdao Commodity Trading Market Co., Ltd., the company contributed 150 million yuan, accounting for 15% of the equity. The e-commerce platform system of "Big Business Road" will build the only third-party commodity trading platform like LME at this stage around the construction of electronic trading platform, warehousing and logistics platform, financing settlement platform and information network platform.
Maintain the "highly recommended-A" investment rating. We predict that the linkage between the company's block trading platform and financial services business will bring double profit growth in the future. The estimated earnings per share is $0.55 per share for 17 years, which corresponds to 36 times PE for 16 years, maintaining the "highly recommended-A" investment rating.
Risk hint: market systemic risk, "big business road" e-commerce platform is not as expected.