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顺发恒业(000631)年报点评:财务费用明细下降 业务拓展积极推进

海通證券 ·  Apr 13, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Two days of ice and fire, declining revenue, and a blowout in sales. In 2015, the company achieved total operating income of 3.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.20%; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 327 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.08%; plans to distribute cash dividends of 1 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares to all shareholders and 3.8 shares (tax included) for every 10 shares, using capital reserve funds to increase 1 share for every 10 shares. Affected by market adjustments in the first three quarters of 2014, the company's operating income declined sharply in 2015, and net profit fell by nearly half. Unlike dismal revenue, the company experienced a sales blowout for 15 years. The company completed contract sales amount of 5.23 billion yuan during the reporting period, with a contract sales area of 337,800 square meters, up 76.60% and 57.41% respectively over the same period last year. We believe that the company's performance in 2016 is expected to explode and be highly flexible. The balance and liability structure has been optimized, and the capital situation has improved. The company's balance ratio was 68.36%, down 2.12% from the previous year; the interest-bearing debt ratio was 39.89%, a sharp decrease of 16.48% from the previous year; monetary cash was 12.06 billion yuan, up 17.98% year on year, and the debt ratio declined across the board. During the reporting period, the company plans to issue 1.2 billion corporate bonds and the proposed non-public offering of 1.6 billion A-shares, all of which have been approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission; furthermore, it completed the issuance of 1.2 billion medium-term notes on March 4, 2016. The American project was launched, and the journey of internationalization began. During the reporting period, Shunfa Hengye America (“Shunfa America” for short), a wholly-owned subsidiary established by the company in the US, and the American Group, a subsidiary of Wanxiang American, jointly funded two project companies and invested in two projects in the US. Currently, both projects are under development and construction. The majority shareholders' new business ideas, Wanxiang Concentration City is on the agenda. According to the company's 2015 annual report, it will actively participate in the construction of Juneng City, the majority shareholder, accumulate experience in the development, construction and management of new parks; increase research on old-age care and health care properties, choose opportunities to enter this industry, and try joint development with insurance capital. The chairman of the group has made it clear earlier that “during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and even the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Wanxiang will carry out a major event and invest 200 billion yuan over ten years to build an innovative smart city that brings together projects such as power batteries, pure electric buses, new energy passenger vehicles, and new energy components.” Profit forecasts and investment advice. The company's 2016 and 2017 EPS are expected to be 0.34 and 0.49 yuan, respectively. Based on the company's stock price of 8.74 yuan on April 12, the corresponding PE for 2016 and 2017 is 25.71 times and 17.84 times. Considering the orderly growth of the company's sales in 2015, the issuance of corporate bonds effectively reduced financial costs. The medium-term business is also expected to be highly integrated with the majority shareholders' strategies, giving the company a price-earnings ratio of 35 times that of 2016, corresponding to a stock price of 11.9 yuan, maintaining the company's “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning. The company has announced that although advance accounts for the first quarter have increased sharply year over year, current carry-over revenue has declined year over year. It is expected that settlement revenue for the first quarter will decline, which may reflect a year-on-year decline in profit.

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