share_log

普邦园林(002663)年报点评:业绩有望筑底回升 环保巨舰即将起航

國泰君安 ·  Apr 20, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Guide to this report: The main business is expected to reverse and recover. The merger and acquisition of Deep Blue Environmental Protection accelerates the expansion of environmental protection business, and the cultivation of multi-polar business is progressing steadily. The target price has been raised to 8.36 yuan, increasing the holding rating. Key investment points: Maintain an increase in holdings. The company's revenue in 2015 was about 2.4 billion yuan (-23% yoy) and net profit of about 200 million yuan (-49.9% yoy), which is generally in line with expectations. Considering that Deep Blue Environmental Protection will achieve full-year consolidation in 2016 (Q4 consolidation for 2015 only), PPP orders are expected to grow steadily, and the environmental protection business will enter an accelerated harvest period, maintaining EPS of 0.19/0.24 yuan in 2016/17. Considering the steady progress of the company's Internet finance layout and the establishment of Kangmei Health Insurance to create a new first-class business, referring to comparable company PE valuations, the company was given 44 times PE in 2016, and the target price was raised to 8.36 yuan, increasing holdings. The earnings ratio improved, and the gross/net margin declined. In 2015, the company's revenue ratio was 88.2% (+22.6pct), net operating cash flow - 400 million yuan (-140%), mainly due to the deep blue merger and withdrawal of the BT project bid deposit in 2014; 2) the gross profit ratio was 20.84% (year-on-year -5.3pct), mainly due to fluctuations in the real estate market and a slight decrease in gross margin; 3) the management expense ratio was about 8.2% (+1.34pct year on year), bad debt losses were +86.3%, dragging down the net interest rate by 4.39pct to 4.19%;) Accounts receivable agreement 1.3 billion yuan (+56% year-on-year), mainly due to the acquisition of Deep Blue and the increase in maturing settlement payments. Build a large ecosystem, and performance growth is fully guaranteed. The company 1) will use deep blue's advanced technology to drive the upgrading of garden business, and deep blue customers are mainly government investment platforms or environmental protection departments, which is conducive to the accelerated implementation of municipal and environmental PPP orders, and the synergy effect exceeds expectations; 2) Deep Blue promises to achieve net profit of 4640/67.28 million yuan in 2016/17, helping the company's performance to grow steadily; 3) Actively build an enterprise platform with “ecology+environment+people's livelihood” as the core. In the future, multi-polar business development will increase the company's profits; 3) The current trend of real estate chain recovery is obvious, and the company's garden business is growing significantly Guaranteed. Catalysts: Accelerated environmental protection layout, garden technology innovation and upgrading, multipolar business cultivation, PPP promotion, etc. Core risks: poor implementation of platformization strategies, PPP model promotion falling short of expectations, risk of bad debts, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment