Main points of investment
Event: according to the company's 2015 annual report, the company's operating income was 1.501 billion yuan, an increase of 91.41% over the same period last year; the net profit belonging to the owner of the parent company was 167 million yuan, an increase of 200.52% over the same period last year. Comments:
The net profit is slightly lower than previously expected, the high growth trend remains unchanged, and the doubling of performance is mainly due to the combination of national interconnection and mutual advertising. Enterprise text messages and digital marketing business account for more than 90% of the company's net profit. 1. China Capital Interconnection has achieved a 15-year net profit of 96.4653 million yuan since September 2014, an increase of 20.98% over the same period last year, and the growth rate is slightly lower than the previous expected growth rate. 2. Mutual advertising began to merge in July 2015. its annual net profit was 109.9386 million yuan, an increase of 111.87% over the same period last year, an increase in line with expectations.
The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin increased significantly, and the proportion of three fees to revenue remained stable as a whole. The company's gross profit margin was 26.35%, up 5.8% from 20.55% in the same period last year; the net profit margin was 11.15%, up 4.05% from 7.1% in the same period last year; the increase was mainly due to the higher gross margins of the national capital and Mutual's business. In terms of three fees, they are basically the same as last year. We expect that with the success of the merger, the gross profit and Sanfei will be relatively stable.
The company has comprehensively carried out communications + Internet transformation, while continuing to grow, the Internet extension expansion strategy is also constantly advancing: the outbreak of SMS demand of customers of enterprises benefiting from information services is expected to maintain a high annual growth rate of 30%. The business progress of traffic operation will be the next growth flashpoint of the national capital. Digital marketing business benefits from the rapid growth of the programmed purchase advertising industry, and is expected to achieve compound growth of more than 50% in the next few years.
Profit forecast: in the short term, the consolidation effect will promote the explosive growth of the company's performance, and the rapid growth of enterprise text messages and digital marketing business will promote the company's compound high growth in the next few years; in the long run, the company's Internet transformation strategy will continue to advance. Due to the 15-year performance slightly lower than expected, we downgraded the company's 16-18 EPS to 1.02,1.36,1.70 yuan to maintain the "buy" rating!
Risk hint: the competition of the enterprise short message industry is intensified, and the growth rate is lower than expected; the development of SSP industry is not as expected.