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炼石有色(000697)点评:单晶叶片 引爆国内细分行业

國泰君安 ·  Apr 20, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: Single crystal blades have been successfully sent for inspection. In the future, when they pass certification, they may exceed market expectations. Performance is about to usher in rapid growth and maintain an increase in holding ratings. Investment points: Maintaining an overweight rating. Maintain the company's 2016-2018 EPS forecast of 0.09/0.39/0.58 yuan. Considering that the company's monocrystalline blades have been successfully sent for inspection, the order may land faster than the market thought. Future demand for national defense and overseas civil aviation demand will be large, maintaining a target price of 37.2 yuan, space of 51%, and maintaining an increase rating of 51%. The order placement time is expected to exceed expectations. Recently, the market is concerned that after the company's monocrystalline blade press conference, there are no catalytic factors in the short term, and the long certification cycle may lead to slower order execution. We believe that the order execution time is expected to exceed expectations. Regarding the revision of the yield rate: Earlier, the company said at the company's press conference that a certain batch was as high as 96% (23/24), which raised market doubts. We judge that this is only a one-off yield, and that procedures such as subsequent machining and downstream inspection will still reduce the overall yield. In terms of the certification cycle, since company expert Wang Lizhi is in charge of the supply chain at engine factories such as Luoluo and is familiar with the certification procedures and key points of foreign engine manufacturers, we judge that the fastest certification cycle is calculated on a one-year basis. The company may welcome small-batch orders in the fourth quarter, which will exceed market expectations. There is plenty of room for future profit release. The company's current single-line production capacity is designed to be 10,000 monocrystals per year and 80,000 polycrystals/year, which is a change from the 55,000 blade production line previously planned (280 million net profit), but the profit situation may be even stronger. Production is expected to expand to two lines by the end of 2016, judging that it may be necessary to cope with the pace of downstream certification. At the same time, there are 12 lines for the company's potential future expansion of production. Once downstream certification is passed, subsequent performance growth will be greatly improved. Catalyst: Order for monocrystalline blades landed. Risk warning: risk of the order not being fulfilled, risk of certification failure.

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