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联众国际(6899.HK):智力体育战略扬帆 棋牌+赛事+电竞三驾马车齐驱

光大證券 ·  Apr 20, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Company profile: Lianzhong is one of the most famous Internet service providers for casual chess and card games in China, with the second largest market share. When the acquisition of WPT's business was integrated, the synergy effect was significant. The advantage of the joint venture was game development and operation, and WPT had world-class chess and card tournament management, media communication, and sponsorship capabilities. Specific synergies are reflected in 1) WPT's original online board games have been optimized, and game operation and monetization capabilities have been strengthened. 2) Lianzhong's operation of the tournament and media recording and communication capabilities have been strengthened. 3) Establish a professional brand image of international superstars and attract a large number of experienced professional players to join. In the second half of 2015, Texas Hold'em's revenue increased 113% year on year. Top tournament operations, product differentiation+free marketing The board game industry is seriously homogenized. We believe it will be difficult for companies without barriers to gain a foothold for a long time in the future. Lianzhong has top events, raises industry barriers, enters the market from a professional perspective, and enhances product differentiation. Currently, tournament operations are in a break-even state, but we can understand that break-even tournament operations provide free marketing+product differentiation, making an indelible contribution to their online diffusion. Furthermore, there is huge room for imagination in future tournament operation sponsorship and broadcasting. Netfish has a 10% stake in Netfish Internet Cafe. The probability of going public within the next 3 years is very high. Netfish is the largest Internet cafe chain in China. Unlike traditional Internet cafes, Netfish has turned Internet cafes into a casual social place. The company's total sales in 2015 reached 700 million yuan, with an annual growth rate of 100%. It already has 486 stores (with an annual growth rate of 40%) covering 52 cities across the country. Its app, Fish Bubble, has a second potential. Join hands with IP giants to set up an “e-sports league” to launch a global e-sports strategy competition, and join forces with Netfishnet, Skynet, Palm Fun Technology, 360 and Sports Window to establish “Alliance Esports”. The plan is to create a global e-sports brand event by aggregating top IP and event resources to match the layout of offline venues. The company accounts for 45% of affiliate e-sports. It is expected that in 2016, at least 5 e-sports stadiums will be established worldwide. The first overseas e-sports hall has already been decided to be in Las Vegas, USA. For the first time, Lianzhong International was given a “buy” rating, with a target price of HK$5.37 for the next 12 months: we expect Lianzhong's profits for 2016, 2017 and 2018 to be RMB 153 million, RMB 231 million and RMB 238 million, respectively. Based on a WACC of 13.84% and a long-term growth rate of 2%, a “buy” rating is given. The target price for the next 12 months is HK$5.37, corresponding to 23x P/E in 2016. Risk warning: Performance falls short of expectations, WPT integration falls short of expectations, and e-sports affiliate promotion falls short of expectations.

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