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延华智能(002178)年报点评:成电医星增厚业绩 智慧医疗引领高增长

華泰證券 ·  Apr 21, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The performance is in line with expectations. The smart building business has consolidated the cornerstone, and Chengdian Medical Star has brought new performance growth points. In 2015, the company achieved revenue of 1,117 billion yuan, YoY +35.47%; net profit of 102 million yuan, YoY +76.52%; earnings per share of 0.15 yuan, YoY +66.67%. One reason for the sharp increase in performance is the steady growth of the traditional intelligent building business (YoY +23.81%). The second reason is that the merger of Chengdian Medical Star, which was acquired during the reporting period, and the synergy with the company's original smart medical business brought additional performance contributions to the company. Software and consulting, smart medical care, and smart energy saving businesses account for nearly half of the gross profit. The company has gradually changed from an engineering contractor to a software and service provider with higher added value, raising the company's reasonable valuation level. The fee control effect is obvious. Government subsidies have increased dramatically, and operating cash flow needs to be improved. The company's gross profit margin in 2015 was 22.85%, up 0.07pct year on year, and net profit margin was 10.27%, up 2.77pct year on year. The increase in net interest rates is mainly dependent on lower period fees and more government subsidies. The period fee rate was 11.48%, down 1.07pct from the previous year. The financial expense ratio decreased by 0.37pct, mainly due to a reduction in short-term borrowing and interest expenses. The sales expense ratio and management expense ratio also decreased by 0.06 pct and 0.65 pct respectively, mainly related to the increase in revenue scale. The government subsidy increased from 3.84 million yuan in 2014 to 31.37 million yuan in 2015. The subsidy is mainly related to the company's R&D investment and achievements in smart energy saving and smart medical care. The company's net operating cash in 2015 was 80.5 million yuan, YoY +0.43%, far below the revenue growth rate. We think it's related to the slowdown in repayment rates. The revenue ratio in 2014 was 0.95, and fell to 0.78 in 2015. At the same time, accounts receivable increased to $286 million, YoY +89.4%. The acquisition of Chengdian Medical Star, which owns the entire smart medical industry chain, is imminent. The company completed the acquisition of 75.24% of Chengdian Medical Star's shares in the third quarter of 2015. The main business of Chengdian Medical Star is the provision of medical software systems, and it has strong competitiveness in terms of technology. After the acquisition was completed, the company successively won bids for the Changchun Elderly Care Integrated Cloud Information Platform and the Chongzhou Smart Healthcare Project, with a total contract amount of 449 million yuan. The complementarity and synergy between Chengdian Medical Star and the company's smart medical business quickly became apparent. With the completion of the smart medical layout and increasing demand for city-level medical information platform construction, we believe that the smart medical business will develop more rapidly in 2016. The smart city model is becoming more and more mature. Combined with the PPP model, it is deeply involved in local urban construction. Currently, it has eight smart city companies, and will continue to explore markets in Hefei, Nanchang, Qingdao, Langfang and other places in the future. With the rise of the PPP model, companies will also make full use of it, shifting from obtaining individual projects in the past to acquiring and participating in the city's overall business. Create a larger market for intelligent building business, and create a favorable market environment for smart medical care. Smart Healthcare expects high growth and maintains a “buy” rating. We forecast the company's 2016-18 EPS of 0.22/0.30/0.40 yuan, YoY +58%/34%/35%, and CAGR 42%. Taking into account the industry valuation and the growth rate of the company's performance, especially the increase in the share of profits in the software and service business, the company can be given 50-55 times PE in '16, with a reasonable valuation range of 11-12.1 yuan to maintain a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The development of smart medical business falls short of expectations, and the development of smart energy-saving business falls short of expectations.

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