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海南海药(000566)年报点评:业绩较快增长 继续耕耘大健康产业

華泰證券 ·  Apr 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The 2015 results achieved relatively rapid growth, but the company announced 2015 results below expectations: achieving total operating income of 1,678 million, net profit of 195 million, and net profit of 145 million after deducting net profit of 145 million, increases of 21.20%, 19.96%, and 24.68%, respectively, and EPS of 0.36 yuan, which is lower than expected. The company plans to use capital reserves to increase 10 shares for every 10 shares. The growth of key pharmaceutical products was steady, and the sharp increase in sales expenses dragged down the company's main pharmaceutical business revenue growth by 22.10%. Specifically: gastrointestinal health increased by 8.5%, revenue exceeded 200 million; paclitaxel recovered, surged by more than 300%; cephalosporin preparations fell by nearly 10% due to the impact of tenders; APIs and intermediates benefited from the gradual release of production capacity and a 57% increase in market development, while the company's medical devices (cochlear implants) also made some progress, achieving revenue of 9.6 million. During the reporting period, the company's expenses increased significantly, and sales expenses increased by 44.41% (mainly by increasing market investment to cope with fierce competition), which dragged down overall net profit. Management expenses and financial expenses also increased rapidly, increasing by 13.55% and 19.27% respectively. It is expected that they will maintain a certain increase in the future. The company's performance is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2016. We expect that the new round of bidding will have a certain impact on the company's pharmaceutical products. The company's cephalosporin products is expected to hedge some risks by continuing to strengthen market investment, while gastroenterology is expected to continue to grow steadily due to its comparative advantage in price, and paclitaxel is still in a restorative growth channel; the API and intermediates business is expected to gradually increase in scale with the release of production capacity and market expansion. Profitability is expected to improve, and it is expected that the company's performance will continue to grow rapidly in 2016. Continue to actively expand the “Big Health” industry company, actively cultivate the “big health industry” system, establish a wholly-owned subsidiary, Haiyao Health Management (Beijing) Co., Ltd., participate in Chongqing Yade Technology Co., Ltd. and Hunan Jinshengda Air Hospital Information Service Co., Ltd., build the company's Internet medical and health management service platform, focus on primary telemedicine and participate in public hospital restructuring in line with the trend of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment, injecting impetus into long-term development. Taking into account the company's performance and large health industry layout, we maintained the increase in holdings rating. We downgraded the company's 2016-2018 EPS to 0.46, 0.57, and 0.68 yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE was 48 times, 40 times, and 33 times, respectively. Considering that the company's performance is expected to grow rapidly, that it is actively cultivating the “big health” industry, and that it has already made gains in primary telemedicine and public hospital restructuring, it maintains the company's “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning: The impact of the tender exceeded expectations, and the progress of the major health layout fell short of expectations.

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