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浔兴股份(002098)年报点评:主业停滞 受益CBA商业化进程加快

國泰君安 ·  Apr 26, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment Essentials: Maintaining an “Overweight” rating. The company's 2015 performance was slightly lower than the previous forecast. We lowered the 2016-17 EPS forecast to 0.23/0.26 yuan (previously 0.27/0.31 yuan), and expect the future growth rate of the garment accessories industry to be about 5-10%. Referring to leading companies in transformation, and considering that Xunxing Men's Basketball Club's progress into listed companies is expected to exceed market expectations and give a valuation premium of 15.0 yuan, maintaining a target price of 15.0 yuan, corresponding to 65.2 times PE in 2016, increasing the rating. The decline in export revenue led to a decline in performance, and cost control led to an increase in gross margin. 1) Revenue in 2015 was $1,041 million (-0.77%), and net profit to mother was $72 million (-7.97%), lower than previously anticipated ($1,055/ 82 million yuan, respectively). 2) The company's domestic sales revenue remained flat in 2015. Affected by the international economic situation, export revenue fell 5.25%. The revenue of strip zippers, which account for 60% of the main products, fell -6.79%, affecting performance. 3) Costs were properly controlled, and the gross margin of the main business increased by 0.51 pct year on year. 4) The financial structure was optimized, and the financial expense ratio was drastically reduced by 26.9 pcts due to fund-raising funds to repay loans. 5) It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 0.8 yuan for every 10 shares. Negotiations between the Chinese Professional Federation and the Basketball Association forced the CBA reform to speed up. On April 19, 2016, the Chinese Professional Federation held negotiations with the Basketball Association. Although the negotiations are at an impasse, the CBA reform process has objectively been accelerated, and it is expected that the CBA company preparation team will be set up in late April. The NBL tested the waters first. It is expected that CBA commercialization will advance steadily, and the club's injection progress is expected to exceed market expectations. 1) On April 21, 2016, the NBL reform took the lead and is expected to become a benchmark for the development of the basketball industry. 2) It is anticipated that club profits will only be injected. The CBA commercialization process is progressing steadily. The group's clubs will greatly benefit from CBA commercialization, which is expected to turn losses into profits. Risk warning: The Xunxing men's basketball team under the group fell short of expectations, and the main zipper business continued to deteriorate, etc.

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