Main points of investment:
The company releases its quarterly report of 2016
The company adjusts the internal management organization: the cooperative development department is changed into the investment management department, and the medical department is added at the same time.
Revenue fell 5.97% in the first quarter of 2016, and net profit fell 15.71%, which was lower than we expected. In the first quarter of 2016, the operating income was 274 million yuan, down 5.97% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 29.17 million yuan, down 15.71% from the same period last year, which is lower than our performance forecast of 35.3 million yuan in the first quarterly report. The reason why the company's performance declined more than its revenue in the first quarter was that its investment income decreased by 3 million yuan compared with last year.
The company adjusts the setting of its internal management organization, and the strategic transformation continues to advance. At the same time, the company announced the adjustment of the internal management organization, the change of the cooperative development department into the investment management department, and the addition of the medical division, which is consistent with the changes of several senior executives of the company in the early stage. it shows that the company is actively promoting the transformation of medical care and carrying out a positive layout for the transformation in terms of personnel and organizational structure.
The company's current stock price still has a high margin of safety. The company's current stock price has a high margin of safety, with a total market capitalization of about 4.8 billion yuan and an annual net profit of about 140 million yuan. In addition, the company's Hangzhou Department Store, Hangzhou Hotel and collectibles market are all owned properties; in addition, it holds a 30% stake in Xizi International Center in the Qingchun Road business district of Hangzhou. The total equity area of self-owned property is about 270000 yuan, all of which are located in the core area of Hangzhou, and the revaluation value of equity property is about 8.094 billion according to the conservative estimation of 30,000 yuan of self-owned property. Traditional business performance and self-owned property provide a margin of safety for the company's share price.
The landing of the tumor hospital is accelerated, and the expansion of the industrial chain is expected. Xizi International Precision treatment Center, which the company cooperated with Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, was originally scheduled to open at the end of 2016, but now due to the slow progress of government approval, the company is actively selecting the site and is expected to speed up the landing. We believe that the landing of the company's tumor treatment center is of great significance to the company's transformation of medical health. after the cancer hospital platform is built, the company's expansion in the tumor industry chain will also be accelerated. Provide a major catalyst for the rise of the company's share price.
Maintain earnings forecasts and maintain "buy" ratings. We maintain the company's profit forecast and estimate that the operating income from 2016 to 2018 will be 1.7529,536 million yuan, and the net profit of returning home will be 1.48 million yuan respectively. The net profit of the company's traditional business in 2016 is expected to be 148 million yuan, we give the traditional business 20 times PE corresponding to a reasonable market value of 2.96 billion yuan, tumor hospital 800beds, it is estimated that the annual income of each bed will achieve 1.5 million yuan in 2020, the annual income will achieve 1.2 billion yuan, according to the net interest rate of 25%, the net profit can be achieved of 300 million yuan, and the reasonable market value of the tumor hospital calculated by 10 times PE in 2020 is 3 billion yuan. We conservatively calculate that the reasonable market capitalization of the company is 5.96 billion yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.