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普邦园林(002663)一季报点评:PPP稳步推进 生态+环保+民生多级转型

國泰君安 ·  Apr 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: Maintain an increase in holdings. The company's 2016 Q1 revenue was about 430 million yuan (+7.1%) and net profit was about 9.36 million yuan (-66.6%), which is basically in line with expectations. Considering that Deep Blue Environmental achieved full-year consolidation in 2016 (Q4 in 2015 only), PPP orders are expected to grow steadily, and the environmental protection business will enter an accelerated harvest period, maintaining the forecast that the company's 2016/17 EPS is 0.19/0.24 yuan. Considering the steady progress of the company's Internet finance layout and the establishment of Kangmei Health Insurance to create a new first-class business, the company's PE in 2016 was increased 45 times, and the target price was raised to 8.55 yuan, increasing holdings by referring to comparable companies' PE valuations. The earnings ratio improved, and the gross/net margin declined. The company's revenue ratio for the first quarter of 2016 1) was about 143.22% (+7.07pct), net operating cash flow - 220 million yuan (+61.31%), mainly due to increased collection of project payments and strengthened capital control; 2) gross margin was about 21.14% (-1.77pct), mainly due to fluctuations in the real estate market and a slight decrease in gross margin; 3) the cost ratio for the period was about 16.27% (+3.32pct), mainly due to the increase in deep blue environmental sales expenses, which dragged down the net interest rate of 4.75pct to 2.11%; Receipt The account is approximately $1.25 billion (-7.20%). Asset impairment losses accounted for 47.72% (-29.93pct). Build a large ecosystem, and performance growth is fully guaranteed. The company 1) will use deep blue's advanced technology to drive the upgrading of garden business, and deep blue customers are mainly government investment platforms or environmental protection departments, which is conducive to the accelerated implementation of municipal and environmental PPP orders, and the synergy effect exceeds expectations; 2) Deep Blue promises to achieve net profit of 4640/67.28 million yuan in 2016/17, helping the company's performance grow steadily; 3) Actively build an enterprise platform with “ecology+environment+people's livelihood” as the core. In the future, multi-polar business development will increase the company's profits; 3) The current trend of real estate chain recovery is obvious, and the company's garden business is growing significantly. Guaranteed. Catalysts: Accelerated environmental protection layout, garden technology innovation and upgrading, multipolar business cultivation, PPP promotion, etc. Core risks: poor implementation of platformization strategies, PPP model promotion falling short of expectations, risk of bad debts, etc.

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