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金贵银业(002716)季报点评:产销放量叠加白银跌幅收窄 公司业绩将持续改善 维持“推荐”评级

銀河證券 ·  May 3, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment highlights: 1. Incidents: Financial Banking released its 2015 quarterly report. The company achieved operating income of 1,322 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2016, an increase of 20.46% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deduction of deduction of 337 million yuan, an increase of 6.97% over the previous year; and achieved earnings per share of 0.06 yuan. 2. Our analysis and judgment (1) Production and sales volume helped the company reverse the decline in the average price of silver. During the reporting period, although COMEX silver prices fell 10.40% year on year compared to the first quarter of last year, the company's operating income increased 20.46% year on year, operating profit increased 11.96% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased 6.97% year on year after deductions. In an unfavorable environment where the price of silver fell sharply, the company was still able to achieve both revenue and performance growth, and inventories increased by 193 million yuan compared to the beginning of the year. It can be seen that the company maintained a rapid increase in silver production and sales in the first quarter of 2016. The increase in silver production and sales helped the company offset the decline in performance caused by falling silver prices. Once the price of silver stabilizes, in line with the company's output volume, the company's performance will be extremely flexible. (2) It is expected that the company's performance in the second quarter will continue to improve, and is expected to expand. COMEX silver prices have risen 25.68% since the beginning of the year, up 26.44% from the lowest price point in 2016. As a silver smelting and processing enterprise, the company's performance is most closely linked to the year-on-year rise and fall in silver prices. If the increase in silver increases, the improvement in the company's performance will increase. This is the second-order derivative of the price of silver. The year-on-year growth rate of COMEX silver for each quarter since 2015 (2015Q1 to 2016/Q1) has been -18.32%, -16.09%, -24.47%, -10.83%, and -10.40%, respectively. The decline is gradually narrowing, and the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is also gradually improving (as the price decline narrows, performance will improve). It is expected that after 2016 Q1, the change in silver prices will change from negative year-on-year growth to positive growth, and the company's performance will continue to improve significantly. (3) The Matthew effect increased, helping the company grow into a wholly-owned subsidiary of the world's largest silver producer company, received IFAD's intention to invest in Guilong Company and Jinfu Yingui, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the participating company. The special construction fund totaled 148 million yuan, with an annualized return on capital of 1.2%. The company became the largest producer of silver in China in 2015. On this basis, the company plans to raise additional capital to invest in the “2000t/a High Pure Silver Clean Extraction and Expansion Project”. Two years later, after completion of the project, the company will become the number one producer of silver in the world, and far surpass the second largest producer of silver in the world. Due to the Matthew effect, various resources, including government resources, will be skewed towards the company, helping the company become the absolute leader in the Belarusian banking industry, and the upstream and downstream expansion of the company's industrial chain will be smoother. 3. Investments suggest that a fall in the US dollar is compounded by inflation expectations. Prices of precious metals will continue to rise, while the upward elasticity of silver will be greater than that of gold. The company plans to build a complete clean silver production and comprehensive recycling industry chain, expand upstream and downstream, implement the “whole industry chain +” strategy, and is committed to becoming the first silver stock in the world. The company will fully benefit from the rise in silver prices and become the first flexible precious metal stock. The company's 2016-2017 EPS is expected to be 0.63 and 0.91 yuan, and the corresponding PE for 2016 and 2017 is 25x and 17x, maintaining the “recommended” rating. 4. Risk warning 1) Prices of non-ferrous metals such as silver have fallen sharply; 2) The release of production capacity in the company's fund-raising projects falls short of expectations.

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