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东莞控股(000828)年报点评:高速业绩稳健 看好大金融转型

招商證券 ·  Apr 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company published its 2015 annual report. In 2015, the company achieved operating income of 1,097 million yuan (+17.21%), net profit to mother of 817 million yuan (+38.31%), net profit of 763 million yuan (+40.58%), basic EPS of 0.7855 yuan (+38.32%), and weighted ROE of 18.99% (+3.52pct). Comment: 1. Rapid recovery of the main business and the explosion of investment income. Performance increased sharply year-on-year. In 2015, the company achieved operating income of 1,097 million yuan (+17.21%), operating costs of 393 million yuan (+30.98%), and gross profit of 545 million yuan (+12.6%). Management expenses of 60 million yuan (+11.94%), financial expenses of 47 million yuan (-22.18%), investment income of 425 million yuan (+73.13%), of which investment income in joint ventures and joint ventures was 346 million yuan (+96.67%). The rapid recovery in the main business and the explosion in investment income led to a sharp year-on-year increase in the company's performance. 2. The quality of road products is high, and the growth rate is faster than the industry average. The company's road products include the first and second phase, the Dongcheng section of the Gan-Shenzhen Expressway and the Longlin Expressway, and is also entrusted with managing the Shijie section of the third phase of the Guan-Shenzhen Expressway, with a total mileage of about 61.26 kilometers. The Guan-Shenzhen Expressway is located in the hinterland of the Pearl River Delta. It is an important part of the Pearl River Delta Ring Expressway in Guangdong Province, and has become an important fast track connecting Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen. The company also took 11.11% of Humen Bridge's shares (including investment income). During the reporting period, the company achieved toll revenue of 934 million yuan, an increase of 8.53% over the previous year. Among them, the Longlin Expressway achieved revenue of 68.43 million yuan (+2.35%), 62.3 million yuan (+13.86%) for the Dongcheng section of the third phase of the Guan-Shenzhen Expressway, and 803.6 million yuan (+8.7%) for the first and second phases of the Guan-Shenzhen Expressway. Affected by favorable factors such as the increase in private car ownership and the implementation of evasive vehicle control, mixed traffic on the entire Guan-Shenzhen Expressway achieved a 10.91% increase. However, due to the reclassification of national standard models and full weight charges for trucks, some models that originally implemented class 2, 3, and 4 vehicle fees were reclassified to Class 1 and 5 vehicles. During the reporting period, the company's Class 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 vehicles increased 17.13% and 0.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 16.9%, a decrease of 11.2%, and an increase of 2.3%, causing the growth rate of the company's toll revenue to be lower than the growth rate of traffic. 3. Rongtong Leasing, a wholly-owned subsidiary of a company with rapid growth in the financial leasing business, mainly carries out financial leasing business in the fields of transportation, infrastructure, buses, ports and terminals, and manufacturing enterprises in the form of direct leasing, sales and leaseback. During the reporting period, Rongtong Leasing continued to enrich the leasing customer industry and nature and strengthen business risk prevention and control. In 2015, Rongtong Leasing's contract leasing business amount increased 3.9 times from 500 million yuan in 2014 to 2.6 billion yuan, and completed a total capital investment of 2.4 billion yuan. In the reporting period, Rongtong Leasing achieved operating income of 138 million yuan, operating profit of 608.546 million yuan, and net profit of 45.7712 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 137.88%, 33.84%, and 26.19%, respectively. 4. Dongguan Securities contributed most of its investment income to benefit from the activity of the securities market. In 2015, Dongguan Securities achieved operating income of 3,766 billion yuan and net profit of 1,453 billion yuan respectively, up 107.83% and 133.10% year-on-year, contributing 283 million yuan in investment income, accounting for 67% of the company's investment income. The company's other investment units — Humen Bridge, Dongguan Trust, etc. — also continued to maintain a steady level of growth. The company's investment income reached 425 million yuan during the reporting period, up 73.13% year on year, accounting for 52.07% of the company's annual net profit. 5. Fixed increases are embedded in employee stock ownership plans. State-owned enterprise reforms are progressing steadily. In order to make financial leasing and highway business the twin engines of the company's rapid development in the future, the company plans to increase the capital of Rongtong Leasing by 1.4 billion yuan through the private issuance of additional shares. On February 2, '16, the Development and Review Committee of the Securities Regulatory Commission approved the company's application for non-public offering, and is currently awaiting approval from the Securities Regulatory Commission. The company uses a private offering to implement an 80 million employee shareholding plan, so that all employees can share the company's development results. Furthermore, the company is the only state-owned listed company in Dongguan, and the Dongguan State-owned Assets Administration Commission holds a total of about 69% of the shares through the top three shareholders. Dongguan Holdings is one of the important financial service platforms of the Dongguan Municipal Government's development strategy to “accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading and achieve a high level of rise”. Dongguan released the first draft of the “Dongguan State-owned Enterprise Reform and Development (2014-2020) Planning Research Report” in 2014, identifying Dongguan Holdings as a listing platform for state-owned enterprise reform. Luqiao Corporation, the majority shareholder of the company, has also been included by the Dongguan State-owned Assets Administration Commission as a key target of state-owned enterprise reform, and changed its name to Dongguan Transportation Investment Group Co., Ltd. on April 8, 2015, to complete the corporate reform. 6. Investment Strategy We predict that the company's 16-18 EPS will be 0.70, 0.81 and 0.91 yuan, respectively, corresponding to current PE 14.1X, 12.3X and 10.9X. The triple catalysis of the company's main business reversal+financial holding platform+state-owned enterprise reform maintains the “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. Risk Warning: Macroeconomic Decline Exceed Expectations

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