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科力远(600478)季报点评:依托混合动力 静待业绩爆发

興業證券 ·  May 3, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The main investment income has increased dramatically, and the performance has not reversed. The company announced its 2016 quarterly report, with operating income of 433 million yuan, a sharp increase of 153.80% over the same period last year; net profit attributable to the parent company was 34.82 million yuan, an increase of 11.8 million yuan over the same period last year. Excessive expenses are the main factor that has dragged down the company's performance. The company's management expenses account for too much of operating income, over 10%, seriously squeezing the company's profit margin. Although the detailed use of management fees was not disclosed in the quarterly report, as can be seen from the 2015 annual report, Keliyuan Hybrid Technology Co., Ltd. was added in 2015 as the main cause of the surge in management expenses. Furthermore, the company's balance ratio increased significantly from 44.15% at the end of 2015 to 53.52% at the end of the first quarter of 2016, which will also lead to an increase in the company's financial expenses and financial risks to a certain extent in the future. Relying on hybrid power, wait for performance to explode. The company is a leader in oil-electric hybrid batteries in China. Up to now, all plant construction of Kelimei, which cooperates with Toyota, has been completed; in February of this year, the company cooperated with Geely Group, Changan Automobile, and Yunnei Power in the CHS company to make it a national hybrid powertrain system technology platform; in addition, the first phase of the “1 million ton/year energy-saving and new energy vehicle hybrid powertrain industrialization project” (300,000 sets of production capacity) that the company invested and built officially began construction at the end of February this year, with a construction period of 18 months. In the past few years, since hybrid vehicles are still in the early stages of development, the company's performance has not been well reflected. In the future, with the large-scale promotion and application of hybrids, the company's performance is worth looking forward to explosive growth. The company's 2016-2018 EPS is expected to be 0.01 yuan, 0.08 yuan, and 0.17 yuan. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 1,341 times, 217 times, and 101 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning: hybrid power development falls short of expectations; costs are too high; company management is poor

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