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天鹅股份(603029)新股定价:中国棉机制造业首家上市公司 棉机推广+设备更新+智能化升级市场空间巨大

Swan Co., Ltd. (603029) IPO Pricing: China's First Listed Cotton Machine Manufacturing Company Cotton Machine Promotion+Equipment Update+Intelligent Upgrading Market Space Is Huge

華創證券 ·  May 11, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Main points of investment

1. The leading enterprise of cotton machine manufacturing is the market coverage industry leader of Xinjiang Construction Corps.

Leading enterprise of cotton machine manufacturing. Swan Co., Ltd. focuses on the R & D, production and sales of complete sets of cotton processing equipment and accessories, and is the only cotton machine manufacturer in China with one-stop service capacity of cotton processing machinery and equipment, which can be tailored to the overall solution for customers.

Xinjiang Construction Corps leads the industry in market coverage. According to the certificate issued by the China Cotton Association, the company's sales income and market share have been in the top three in China's cotton machinery industry for many years, and the market share in Xinjiang has been in the forefront of the industry for many years. Among them, the market coverage of Xinjiang Construction Corps has been in the leading position.

two。 Cotton machine promotion + equipment update + intelligent upgrade, cotton machine sales space is huge.

Large-scale production increases the demand of cotton machine, and the market space for the promotion of cotton machine is huge. As of 2014, 30% of the cotton acreage in bingtuan has yet to be mechanically picked, and more than 90% of the cotton acreage in Xinjiang still needs to be mechanically picked. In order to adapt to the large-scale production of machine cotton picking, on the one hand, it is necessary to build, rebuild and expand the large-scale machine cotton picking production line; on the other hand, it is necessary to install a set of machine cotton picking and cleaning equipment on the basis of the original hand cotton picking production line.

The annual renewal demand of equipment in Xinjiang is 1.28 billion yuan. According to the statistics of China Cotton Association, there are 2383 packing cotton processing production lines in China at present. According to the usual equipment replacement cycle of 10 years in the industry, 238 production lines are updated every year, and the annual renewal rate of cotton machine is 10.00%. Among them, Xinjiang Construction Corps has 373 production lines, 37 production lines are updated every year, and more than 700 local production lines in Xinjiang are updated every year. At present, according to the usual input cost of 12 million yuan for the technical transformation of a single production line, the annual investment in equipment renewal in Xinjiang will reach 1.28 billion yuan.

Intelligent upgrade market space of 400 million yuan. The upgrading of cotton industry processing technology intelligence, informatization, energy saving and emission reduction, and traceability of cotton picking quality control is imperative, which brings market space for cotton processing online quality inspection intelligent control system, factory original spare parts, overall service outsourcing and other business. according to the intelligent system configuration of 30% of the production line of the Construction Corps, there is at least 400 million yuan of market space.

3. The funds raised will be used for two industrialization projects and supplementary liquidity:

The company plans to raise funds for the annual production of 2000 sets of cotton processing machinery equipment project, Xinjiang Swan Agricultural Machinery and equipment Co., Ltd. agricultural machinery manufacturing project and supplementary liquidity. Among them, after the annual output of 2000 sets of cotton processing machinery equipment project reaches production, the company will increase its business income by 102 million yuan, and after the agricultural machinery manufacturing project of Xinjiang Swan Agricultural Machinery and equipment Co., Ltd. reaches production, the company will increase its business income by 84 million.

4. Investment advice:

We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2016 to 2018 is 0.56,0.63,0.69 respectively, and the corresponding reasonable price range is 10.60-18.55 yuan.

5. Risk Tips:

The production and operation fluctuates seasonally, and the customer concentration is high.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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