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海王生物(000078)季报点评:定增即将完成 业绩加速改善

國信證券 ·  Apr 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Deducting non-return of $36.15 million, up 41.9% year on year, in line with expectations, the company's revenue for the first quarter of '16 was 3.13 billion yuan, up 17% year on year, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 39.35 million yuan, up 42.9% year on year, and deducted non-net profit of 36.15 million yuan, up 41.9% year on year, in line with expectations. The pharmaceutical business continues to expand, and performance is improving at an accelerated pace. The completion of equity incentives can be expected. We expect the company's revenue growth for the first quarter of '16 to be mainly due to the continued expansion of the size of the commercial company, while net profit growth is faster than revenue growth. The main reason is that loss-making industrial assets have not been divested in the same period last year and that the gross margin of the pharmaceutical business has improved. At the same time, the company predicts that net profit for the first half of 2016 will be 9924-126.81 million yuan, an increase of 80%-130% over the previous year. In addition to the above, the main reasons include the reduction in expenses between 10 million and 15 million, regardless of the impact of the reduction in interest expenses. The net profit of the company's main business increased by about 70-75%, showing a trend of accelerated improvement from quarter to quarter, in line with our previous expectations for the rapid growth of the company's main pharmaceutical business. The full quota increase for the majority shareholders is nearing completion. The plan for the majority shareholders to participate in the full fixed increase of 3 billion yuan with a fixed price increase of 9.8 yuan was approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission on January 13, 2016, and is close to the implementation deadline. The capital after the fixed increase will be mainly used to repay bank loans, reduce the company's balance ratio, and increase the level of profit. It is expected that interest expenses will be saved between 1.2 and 130 million yuan in 2016, and the financial cost savings effect will be concentrated in the second half of 2016. Risk warning: fixed growth is lower than expected, GPO extension is lower than expected, accounts receivable accumulation risk, and commercial business expansion is lower than expected. The only target of the “Sanming Model” enterprise version is to accelerate performance improvement and maintain the “buy” rating company's 16-year performance to improve quarterly. In the context of the centralization of the pharmaceutical distribution industry, the company used the advantages of intensification and operational efficiency to promote commercial expansion outside of the province, while Shandong Province focused on improving management and expanding high-margin businesses such as equipment and consumables distribution to increase profits. At the same time, the company is currently the only target of the corporate version of the “Sanming Model”. GPO-style extension is expected to once again innovate the company's operating model, increasing the company's internal profit value while also increasing the company's valuation. Maintaining the previous profit forecast, the EPS for 16-18 is expected to be 0.53/0.88/0.98 yuan, corresponding to PE34x/20x/18x, with a year-on-year increase of -15%/64%/12%, maintaining purchases.

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