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雅百特(002323)季报点评:智能建筑转型可期 海外/光伏助V型突破

國泰君安 ·  Apr 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment highlights: Overweight ratings. The company's Q1 revenue and net profit in 2016 were about 92 million yuan (up 57 times year on year) and 11.39 million yuan (+200%) respectively, lower than our previous expectations. The company predicts 2016 H1 net profit of 0.7-076 million yuan (+448% -495% year-on-year). We maintain the 2016/2017 EPS forecast at 0.54/0.64 yuan (after dilution). Referring to comparable company valuations and considering the company's intelligent building transformation expectations, we raised the target price to 17.5 yuan, corresponding to about 32.4 times PE in 2016, and maintaining the increase in holdings rating. Business is growing rapidly, and Q1 profitability has declined. 1) The company's Q1 gross profit margin was 30.3% (year-on-year -61pp, -12pp), net profit margin 12.3% (y-738pp, -17pp), period expense ratio 16% (-771%, +5pp), profitability declined month-on-month, due to the increase in operating costs of developing new projects (up 456 times year-on-year); 2) Q1 operating cash flow of 120 million yuan, +121% year-on-year, due to the rapid development of the company's business; 3) Accounts receivable at the end of the reporting period, accounting for 1.85 percent of total assets Weight about 17.2% Compared with the end of 2015, down 2.1pp, asset impairment losses - 1.3 million yuan (0 in the same period in 2015), and the risk of bad debts is low. There is huge space for overseas and photovoltaic markets, and the participation of major shareholders and Fosun's Chinese plant department has boosted confidence. 1) The company's photovoltaic roofing and overseas business achieved breakthroughs. The two accounted for about 15% and 24% of revenue in 2015, and gross margin was 33%/75%, respectively; 2) actual controllers, Fosun Regal, and Zhongzhi Financial Holdings, etc. locked in a fixed increase in participation for three years at a price of 26.28 yuan/share, showing the confidence of actual controllers and large financial institutions in the company's future; 3) Adequate capital after the completion of 1 billion yuan will significantly enhance the company's ability to undertake projects and business development, and performance is expected to continue to grow at a high rate. Catalysts: Intelligent business promotion and implementation, new orders, etc. Risk alerts such as declining profitability, order growth falling short of expectations, intelligent expansion falling short of expectations, etc.

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