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尤夫股份(002427)点评:主营业务进入上升周期 大股东更换有望进军“互联网+”领域

招商證券 ·  May 9, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Production capacity expansion is slowing down, and industry concentration is rising. After several years of rapid development of filament in China's polyester industry, the expansion of production capacity has slowed down. The total production capacity in 2015 is about 1.8 million tons, and the estimated increase in 2016 is about 100,000 tons. Currently, the polyester filament industry is highly concentrated in China. Listed companies and the four major manufacturers of Guxiandao, Hengli Group, and Hailide account for about 55% of the total annual production capacity. Among them, the listed company produces 200,000 tons of polyester chips per year, and the polyester industry produces 300,000 tons of filament; crude oil prices have stabilized, and profits have been achieved in the first quarter. The price of crude oil fell significantly in 2015, and the unit price of filament in the polyester industry fell a lot. At one point, it fell below 8000 yuan. Oil prices have stabilized this year. We believe that the demand side sentiment in 2016 was relatively good, and the polyester yarn industry entered an upward cycle in February this year. The company's performance improved this year. Despite losses in January and February, it still achieved a profit of 21.37 million in the first quarter, a significant increase from the fourth quarter of last year. We believe that the company's main business revenue this year will increase significantly compared to last year; the actual controller has changed, and it is hoped that it will enter the “Internet +” field. In April 2016, the controlling shareholder of the company changed to Suzhou Zhengyue. The latter controller, Mr. Jiang Yong, has more than ten years of experience in the Internet industry and has worked for Renren Network and Guangtong Communications. Currently, he is the executive director and general manager of Suzhou Zhengyue, the executive director of Shanghai Shangyu Network Technology, and the companies controlled and invested by Suzhou Zhengyue and Jiang Yong include Fulin Network, Pet Network, Departure Information, and Microuse. We are optimistic that the new controlling shareholder's internet+investment background will bring a new direction to the company's long-term development. The future can be expected; maintain the “Prudent Recommendation - A” investment rating. According to the plans of listed companies, in the future, the company will actively introduce the “Internet +” strategic plan on the premise of ensuring the continued healthy development of the traditional business of polyester industrial yarn, and the transformation of the company into an Internet enterprise is not ruled out. The current business estimates earnings per share of $0.45 in '16, $0.56 in '17, and $0.66 in '18. The corresponding PE is 50.9, 40.3, and 34.5, respectively, maintaining the “Prudent Recommendation-A” investment rating; Risk warning: Crude oil prices are falling.

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