Key points of the report describe the events of the agricultural seed industry and the publication of the 2015 annual report. Incident review company revenue was 3.77 billion yuan, same increase of 23.7%, net profit of 84.52 million yuan, same decrease of 23.6%, net profit of 41.17 million yuan, same increase of 53.3%, and EPS of 0.2 yuan (based on the latest share capital). Among them, revenue for the fourth quarter alone was 1.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.9%, net profit of 70.55 million yuan, a decrease of 27.9%, a decrease of 27.9%, net profit of 42.5 million yuan, an increase of 67.8%, and an EPS of 0.16 yuan (based on the latest share capital). At the same time, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.6 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares and transfer 15 shares to 15 shares. Due to a decrease in non-recurring profit and loss and an increase in income tax, the company's net profit attributable to the year declined. In 2014, the company obtained net profit of 33.88 million yuan after tax due to the transfer of shares in Beijing Agricultural Development Property. After deduction, the net profit attributable to the company in 2015 actually increased by 10.2%. We judge that the increase was mainly due to the combination of new corporate profits and the increase in fertilizer business revenue (same increase of 15.7%) and gross profit margin (same increase of 0.18 percentage points to 0.81%) driven by potash fertilizer and small varieties of fertilizer; at the same time, due to the merger of Henan Agrochemical in November 2015, the company's income tax accrued by 230% compared to last year. Furthermore, since Jiangsu Jindi (October 14), Zhongnong Tiantai (December 14), and Henan Agrochemical and Zhoukou Service Company were included in the consolidated report, the company's revenue increased year over year. We are firmly optimistic about the company's future development prospects. Mainly based on: (1) The promulgation of agricultural reclamation reform rules to remove barriers to the integration of land resources in reclamation areas. Among the company's major shareholders, the Agricultural Development Group owns 4.3 million mu of domestic land (including 700,000 mu of arable land), which does not rule out the possibility of future injection, and taking advantage of the advantages of China Agricultural Reclamation Corporation, the second-tier majority shareholder, it is expected that the company may integrate farms outside the group in the future to participate in farm equity diversification reforms. (2) The company's strategic ideas for building an integrated agricultural platform for central enterprises are clear. The first step is to form a large pattern of seeds and pesticides through epitaxial expansion, and the second step is to strengthen through internal integration, external research cooperation, and the creation of an “agricultural material+farm+storage” service platform connection model. (3) In the long run, the company's business model may form a closed loop of “agriculture+farm+storage” integrated industry similar to the four major international grain merchants, with broad development prospects. Reiterate the “buy” rating. We expect the company's 2016 and 2017 EPS to be 0.35 and 0.42 yuan respectively, giving it a “buy” rating. Risk warning: (1) the company's acquisition price is too high; (2) the speed of service system construction falls short of expectations; (3) the agricultural reclamation reform process falls short of expectations.
农发种业(600313)年报点评:关注公司后期土地资源的整合
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