Conclusions and suggestions: The company's net profit for the first quarter of 2016 increased by 304% year-on-year, significantly better than expected. The opening of high-speed rail has an obvious effect on increasing passenger flow. The company's unique scenic resources will attract visitors from all walks of life and become a driving force for continued growth in performance. The current stock price is 20 times the PE of 2017, maintaining the investment recommendation for buying. Performance report: The company achieved operating income of 305 million yuan in the first quarter of 2016, an increase of 39.75% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to listed companies of 57.8 million yuan, a sharp increase of 304% over the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 352% after deduction; corresponding earnings per share of 0.12 yuan. Significantly better than expected. Performance review: We believe that the company's revenue growth was mainly due to the opening of the Huangshan Beijing-Fu high-speed railway line in July 2015, which led to a rapid increase in passenger flow. Furthermore, the new Yuping Ropeway (transformation) was put into operation in June 2015, increasing the reception capacity of the ropeway by nearly 1 times. According to data from the Huangshan Scenic Area Management Committee, in the first three months of 2016, Huangshan Scenic Area received a total of 622,900 visitors entering the mountain, an increase of 33.91% over the previous year. The year-on-year growth rate of net profit greatly exceeded the growth rate of revenue. The main reason is that gross margin increased by 10.3 percentage points to 44.4% year-on-year due to the increase in passenger flow, and the period expense ratio decreased by 5.3 percentage points year-on-year to 18.62%. Furthermore, the sharp increase in dividends of Huaan Securities led to a 148% year-on-year increase in investment income. Industry outlook: In 2015, the number of domestic visitors reached 4 billion, up 10.5% year on year; domestic tourism revenue was 3419.5 billion yuan, up 13.1% year on year; the number of outbound tourists reached 1+20 billion, and travel expenses reached 104.5 billion US dollars, up 12.0% and 16.7% respectively. Due to the long chain of the tourism industry and the large consumption driving factor, the tourism industry has become one of the industries receiving strong policy support during the current economic transition period. The government work report clearly proposed “implementing a paid vacation system, strengthening the construction of facilities such as tourist transportation, scenic spots, and self-driving car camps, standardizing the order of the tourism market, and welcoming the emerging era of mass tourism.” Future highlights: 1) The company is blessed with tourist resources, and the completion and opening of the high-speed rail has greatly improved the convenience of transportation and helped drive a rapid increase in passenger traffic. On July 1, 2015, the entire Huangshan Beijing-Fu high-speed railway line was opened to traffic. At present, construction of the Hangzhou-Huang high-speed railway has begun. It is expected that it will be completed and opened to traffic in 2018. The capacity expansion and renovation project for the Anhui and Jiangxi Railway has also officially started. The future transportation network will be improved, and traffic convenience will continue to improve. 2) The 100 million shares of Huaan Securities held by the company are estimated to account for 2.76% of Huaan Securities after the issuance of Huaan Securities (3.621 billion shares). According to public information, the market value of Huaan Securities is expected to reach 20 billion yuan to 28 billion yuan, and the market value of shares held by the company will reach 550 million yuan to 773 million yuan, which is the company's potential profit if it is successfully listed, according to the current valuation of brokerage stocks of 11 to 15 times (Huaan Securities net profit of 1,865 billion yuan). Profit forecast: The first quarter is a low tourist season (the second and third quarters are peak tourist seasons). Performance accounts for a relatively low share of the year, and in the second half of the year, as the base period of performance increases, the overall growth rate will slow compared to the first half of the year. Given that 1Q's performance significantly exceeded expectations and the company's profit forecast was raised, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 551 million yuan and 636 million yuan in 2016-2017. YoY is expected to increase by 86.44% (up 40%) and 15.27% (up 46%), respectively, corresponding to earnings of 1.11 yuan and 1.28 yuan per share.
黄山旅游(600054/900942)季报点评:2016Q1纯利同比增长3倍 超预期
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