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云南城投(600239)年报点评:区域市场不景气拖累业绩、大湄公河航旅计划落地

招商證券 ·  Apr 28, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The slump in the regional market dragged down sales and profits for 15 years. The company positioned 2016 as a critical year for transformation. Relying on regional and group resources, it continued to build healthy and leisure real estate, and the Greater Mekong River shipping tourism plan was implemented. Revenue for 2015 was basically close to the annual target, but overall profitability declined markedly. The company achieved total revenue of 4.01 billion yuan (+1.7%) in 2015, net profit attributable to listed companies of 280 million (-36.8%), EPS of 0.26 yuan; 16Q1 revenue of 2 billion yuan (+13.5X), and net profit attributable to listed companies - 140 million yuan. The company's revenue for the year 15 was basically close to the annual target due to project transfers, but overall profitability declined markedly; projects such as the 16Q1 Artist Park achieved partial delivery, but profitability was not ideal, resulting in an increase in revenue and profit on the report. The slump in the regional market dragged down sales declines and overall profit for 15 years. Due to high inventory pressure in the Yunnan region, the company's decontamination rate declined in 2015. The annual sales area and value were 580,000 square meters and 3.9 billion yuan respectively, +17%/-20% year-on-year, and settlement revenue of 2.5 billion billion/ -12%, but it is basically close to the annual target (4.3 billion) by relying on project transfers. The gross margin of the main business has been rising steadily, but the market downturn has led to a sharp drop in gross margin on project transfers, a significant increase in asset impairment losses, and a marked decline in investment income, resulting in a slight loss in operating profit. Ultimately, profit is mainly achieved outside of operations. The year '16 is positioned as a critical year for transformation. Relying on regional and group resources, we continue to build health and leisure real estate. The company pointed out that 2016 was a critical year for transformation, and that it will actively promote direct financing, that is, high debt forces the company to bring in strategic investors and continue to build health and leisure real estate. Yunnan & Southeast Asia regional resources and group resources are the cornerstone of transformation. The company previously announced that it would abandon capital payments for the acquisition, mainly based on the underlying equity structure and business potential considerations. In addition, there are 14 international five-star resorts under the company's timeshare vacation platform, and the total number of members has reached about 1,400 (+150%). Currently, it is still stuck in the owner-sharing model. Timeshare is a sharing economy in the real estate industry. It is still in its infancy in China, but it has great potential for development. The Greater Mekong River shipping tourism plan has been implemented, and there is huge room for development. The company announced that it plans to cooperate with Hong Kong Investment Company/Runde Funing/Tianzheng Investment to establish Yunnan Jinlan Mekong International Tourism Investment and Development Co., Ltd. (35% equity, largest shareholder). The project company plans to develop shipping tourism and tourism resources along the Lancang-Mekong River navigable waters. This project is the implementation of the company's “Yunnan as the point, the Greater Mekong River as the line” plan, and is in line with the “Belt and Road” strategy and the improving economic cooperation policy conditions of ASEAN countries; the Lancang-Mekong River is rich in tourism resources and there is plenty of room for market development (in 2012, the number of Chinese citizens visiting the five countries in the Greater Mekong subregion for the first time reached 6.16 million, an increase of more than 40% in that year). Maintain a “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. The company's own and acquisition projects will continue to deliver results, with a revenue target of 6 billion dollars in 2016, an increase of 50% over actual revenue in 2015. Profit is also expected to recover to a certain extent. The company currently has a total market value of only 5.3 billion dollars (16PE 16X), but it is rich in reserve resources, and the strategic goal of transforming health and leisure real estate is gradually being clarified. The Greater Mekong River air travel plan has also begun to be implemented, and the current high level of debt will force direct financing. Overall, the company is a typical target of “small market capitalization/large platform” and maintains a “highly recommended-A” investment rating. The target price for the first stage is 22X 16PE, corresponding to the price center of 7 yuan/share. Risk warning: 1. Settlement progress and gross margin of major projects are lower than expected; 2. Progress in new economic layout such as timeshare platforms is lower than expected; 3. Progress in state-owned enterprise reform is lower than expected.

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