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海王生物(000078)年报点评:把握医改大机会 GPO延伸+外延驱动成长

國信證券 ·  Apr 28, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Net profit of 136 million yuan was deducted, an increase of 661%, and completed the equity incentive target. It was in line with expectations that the company's 2015 revenue was 11.118 billion yuan, up 13.42% year on year, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 475 million yuan, up 1895% year on year, non-net profit was 136 million yuan, up 661.02% year on year, and EPS was 0.65 yuan, slightly exceeding expectations (Guoxin's previous forecast of 0.62 yuan). Deducted non-net profit was in line with expectations. It also completed the company's executive equity incentive plan to deduct 130 million yuan of non-net profit in 2015 Performance commitments. The company plans to implement a change of 10 to 15. The scale of pharmaceutical business expanded rapidly, and profitability continued to improve. The company's pharmaceutical commercial circulation revenue in 2015 was 9.43 billion yuan, an increase of 15.8% over the previous year, and medical device revenue of 650 million yuan, an increase of 37.9% over the previous year. Among them, the gross margin of the pharmaceutical commercial distribution business was 10.9%, an increase of 0.8 pp over the previous year. The increase in gross margin was mainly due to faster expansion of businesses outside the province with high gross margin levels, while management efficiency in the Shandong region was improving. It is expected that Shandong and Henan regions will maintain steady growth in the future, with the goal of improving efficiency, while new regions such as Hubei, Anhui, and Heilongjiang will actively seize the market and grow rapidly. The gross profit margin of medical devices was 19.5%, up 6.1pp from the previous year, mainly through business expansion and integration into the high-margin high-value consumables business. In the future, it will focus on developing medical device distribution business in Weifang, Zaozhuang and other places. Combined with the original advantages of centralized distribution in Sunshine, it is expected to maintain growth of more than 35%. Furthermore, under the pressure of the “two-vote system” and “business reform and increase,” a large number of small and medium-sized distributors will withdraw from the market, and it is expected that companies' expansion into provinces and regions will accelerate progress. The majority shareholders' full participation in the $3 billion increase is nearing completion. The plan for the majority shareholders to participate in the full $3 billion fixed increase with a fixed price increase of 9.8 yuan was approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission on January 13, 2016, and is close to the implementation deadline. After the fixed increase, the capital will mainly be used to repay bank loans, reduce the company's balance ratio, and increase the level of profit. It is expected that interest expenses will be saved between 130 and 150 million yuan in 2016. At the same time, the company plans to issue 2.3 billion debt financing instruments within 3 years. Against the backdrop of interest rate cuts, the cost of obtaining capital will be significantly lower than the current level, which is also conducive to promoting the expansion of existing business or the implementation of extended mergers and acquisitions. Risk warning: fixed growth is lower than expected, GPO extension is lower than expected, and accounts receivable accumulation risk. Seizing the big opportunities of medical reform, GPO extension+extension drives growth. Maintaining a fixed increase of 3 billion dollars for the majority shareholders with a “buy” rating and subsequent financing will provide sufficient capital for the company's endogenous extension. Optimistic about the company's new regional business expansion and the extension of the GPO model, the profit forecast was raised. The EPS for 16-18 is expected to be 0.53/0.88/0.98 yuan, corresponding to PE34x/20x/18x, a year-on-year increase of -15%/64%/12%, maintaining purchases.

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