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天茂集团(000627)季报点评:借翼寿险扶摇上 待纳财险织金控

華泰證券 ·  Apr 28, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Among insurance stocks, profits leapt to profit. In the first quarter of 2016, Tianmao Group achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 790 million yuan, a loss of 20.41 million yuan in the same period last year, an increase of nearly 40 times over the previous year; operating income of 2.52 billion yuan, an increase of 15 times over the previous year; and total assets of 111.2 billion yuan, an increase of 45 times over the previous year. The transformation of profits into profits and the rapid expansion of assets are mainly due to the successful acquisition of Guohua Life Insurance. On March 16, 2016, Tianmao Group officially acquired some of Guohua Life's shares as the controlling shareholder, and Guohua Life Insurance was included in the consolidated statement. After the merger, Guohua Life achieved net profit of 600 million yuan, and net profit attributable to Tianmao Group was about 306 million yuan. At the same time, Guohua Life Insurance's 7.14% shares held by Tianmao Group before the acquisition were re-measured at fair value, and the difference between the book value and book value increased net profit by about 500 million yuan. To strengthen the return protection strategy, Guohua Life Insurance made stable profits. In 2014, various small and medium-sized insurers took advantage of the market recovery to vigorously develop investment insurance to gain market share. At this time, however, Guohua Life had a long-term layout and gradually adjusted the focus of strategic development to the debt side. Currently, traditional insurance accounts for 59% of premium income. In the current low interest rate market environment, Guohua Life's long-term high-value insurance policies have reduced interest rate sensitivity and reduced investment pressure on the asset side. The return on investment of Guohua Life Insurance has been far above the industry average for the past two years. The high proportion of equity investment is a highlight. However, in the face of sharp fluctuations in the market environment, high-share equity investment may cause floating losses, as reflected in the loss of 4.8 billion yuan in the first quarter due to changes in the fair value of financial assets available for sale. Given that the company currently holds many long-term shares, temporary fluctuations in financial assets available for sale will not affect the company's actual profit, and may release profit margins in the future. To increase the intake of Tianping Financial Insurance, Tianmao Group, which relies on the financial control platform of the new Liyi Group, plans to increase 1.4 billion shares, by 6.8 yuan per share, and raise 9.5 billion yuan to acquire some shares of Tianping Financial Insurance and increase the capital of Guohua Life Insurance again. After the acquisition is completed, Tianmao Group will hold 50% of Tianping Financial Insurance's shares and 51% of Guohua Life Insurance's shares. Tianping Financial Insurance has continued to be profitable for the past three years, with premium income accounting for 41% of the total volume of foreign-funded financial insurance companies. After this acquisition, Tianmao Group will balance various types of insurance, prevent risks, improve solvency, and promote the comprehensive and rapid development of Tianping Insurance. Tianmao Group's controlling shareholder Xinliyi Group holds or shares in financial real estate assets such as Changjiang Securities and Xinliyi Real Estate, which will also provide strong support for the construction of Tianmao Group's financial control platform. It is estimated that in 2016-2017, BVPS 3.1, 3.9, P/B 2.8, 2.2, will have a market value of 49.5 billion yuan and a circulation market value of 9 billion yuan after completion of the acquisition. It is currently the target of the comprehensive listed insurance company with the smallest market capitalization. Combined with its development space, it will continue to give ratings to increase its holdings. Risk warning: market-based reforms in the insurance industry fall short of expectations, market interest rates continue to decline, risk of market fluctuations

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