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中化岩土(002542)深度研究:业务稀缺、模式独特 静待二次腾飞

中信證券 ·  May 30, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points An infrastructure industry leader that is actively transforming and upgrading. The company is mainly engaged in foundation and foundation engineering business. It is one of the few comprehensive underground engineering development service providers in China. The downstream includes industry, municipal transportation, airports, civil construction, etc., and has actively deployed emerging industries such as aviation, media, and finance since 2014. Traditional main business: epitaxial consolidates its leading position and opens up more space through collaboration. The size of the industry is expected to be 700 billion yuan in 2015, with a leading market share of less than 1%. Competition differentiation and integration will become a trend in the future. At the same time, potential integration targets will increase due to the slowdown in the registration system. Furthermore, the company's merger and acquisition model is mature, valuation is advantageous, and there is still room for dilution of the actual controller's shareholding ratio, which also lays the foundation for further extension development based on capital advantages. Through mergers and acquisitions of a series of peer companies, the company completed the transformation of its main business from “foundation treatment” to a “comprehensive service provider for underground engineering development”. The downstream industry also expanded from the original industry to all market fields including rail transit, civil construction, port water, municipal administration, etc., and the market space has been greatly expanded. The original “general airport” target is expected to open up new development space such as flight training and the airport aftermarket. Policy support is being strengthened, restrictions on low-altitude airspace are expected to be liberalized, and the general aviation industry is expected to explode. Relying on the road construction foundation, the company successively laid out general airports in Anji, Jiangsu, Rudong in Jiangsu, Huangshan in Anhui, and Enping in Guangdong, and became scarce general airport targets in the market. General airports have strong complementarity with engineering. For example, airports provide a 10 billion yuan engineering business market, engineering business minimizes airport construction costs, and cooperation with the government brings about a large amount of municipal business. We take a better look at the multi-dimensional commercial development space that GM airports have opened for the company, including flight training, FBO bases, general aviation commercial and leisure centers, etc. The PE mindset lays out emerging industries, and Kyushu Media is most anticipated. The company uses shareholding to lay out new fields across borders, including 30% media, 15% insurance, 11.08% chip (preferred stock), and 0.1364% internet finance. The layout is steady. Among them, we are most optimistic about the media business. Kyushu Dream focuses on the classic “Kyushu” series in fantasy culture, with popular themes. The first film “Two Life Flowers” paid well, and the “Chronicles of the Sea” was well received by the market. It plans to invest 2 billion yuan in the next 3 years to shoot 12 movies and 13 TV series. The product features are outstanding, the IP derivation space is huge, the prospects are broad, and the probability of success is high. A different understanding from the market. 1) Participating in many emerging industries with a low shareholding ratio is intended to cultivate future main businesses using PE thinking. Since cross-border transformation is not difficult, this is a steady and viable method; 2) Due to the limited number of future airports, “preemptive layout” is the key to the general airport industry at this stage, and I am optimistic about the company's first-mover advantage. 3) The IP and characteristics of the “Kyushu” series of products, the rich experience of partners, and the market response of completed works are the main reasons we are optimistic about its media; 4) “High valuation” is supported by historical latitude (minimum PE valuation 35 times since listing), and is also due to the “three major scarcity”. Risk warning: Management risks of diversified operations and expansion, risk of a sharp decline in investment, risk of bad debts, etc. Maintain a “buy” rating. Considering the additional share capital dilution, we maintain the company's 2016-2018 EPS forecast of 0.20/0.27/0.35 yuan. The company is the only domestic A-share company with a Kyushu theme and general airport target. It has a rare transformation and upgrading in the industry that has exceeded expectations. It has high growth performance, and is optimistic about the company's medium- to long-term investment value. Using the segmented valuation method (market value of 17.7 billion yuan for general aviation themed professional projects, 940 million yuan market value for media), the company was given a target price of 10.46 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.

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