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云南城投(600239)年报点评:战略稳步推进 来年业绩无忧

方正證券 ·  May 4, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The company released its 2015 annual report, showing that the revenue for 2015 was 4.01 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% over the previous year. Net profit attributable to the parent company was 279 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.7%. The basic earnings per share were 0.26 yuan, and the weighted average return on net assets was 6.70%. It is not intended to distribute profits. Deeply cultivating Yunnan has already seen results. The company's revenue was 4.10 billion yuan in 15 years with a nationwide brand expansion, an increase of 1.7% over the previous year. The decline in net profit in the current period is mainly due to: on the one hand, the 2014 Level 1 Land Development Zhonghuandong Road project had a high base effect, while similar projects have not yet been settled in this phase; on the other hand, due to the reduction in office properties and parking spaces that can be settled in Kunming, property sales revenue for the current period declined slightly year-on-year. The performance in 2016 is likely to rise above expectations: the company has sufficient marketable projects, 6 first-level land development projects (equity area of 2.35 million square meters), and 29 second-level development projects (equity area of 7.504 million square meters), which will fully benefit from the recovery of the Yunnan and Cheng-Chongqing markets, which have a key layout, and achieve a sharp rise in volume and price (the gross margin of secondary development and sales rose steadily in 2015, increasing 2.26 percentage points to 29.47%). The company's deep cultivation in Yunnan has already seen results. Sales revenue and project reserves are ranked second and first in the Yunnan industry. In 2015, the performance of the Dali and Banna regions was quickly released, and tourism real estate profits were gradually realized; at the same time, the national layout was strengthened through various methods such as extended mergers and acquisitions and cooperative development, 6 new projects were added, and brand characteristics expanded throughout the country. We are blessed with resource endowments, and companies that have a lot of room for asset-light transformation are blessed with resource endowments. On the one hand, it has already been laid out in tourist destination cities such as Dali, Xishuangbanna, Anning, and Qingcheng Mountain, etc., and the brand effect of tourist real estate projects is gradually showing, and it is a target for high-quality and scarce tourist real estate in the real estate sector. On the other hand, as the controlling shareholder Yunnan City Investment Group's only A-share listing platform, the company received support in various industries such as tourist attractions, hotels, medical care, water, education and finance, and successfully promoted asset-light transformation integrating real estate integration, service and development and operation: building an intelligent urban community in Rongcheng, Kunming Lake, promoting community operation and service platform construction; improving the Dream Yunnan timeshare system; increasing the added value of tourism real estate through property exchange and accommodation, residence and vacation, life services, and trusteeship revenue; creating an O2O service platform to accurately integrate the city's commercial resources and optimize the operation of the city Management and owner experience to cultivate profit models at entry terminals. Seize the “Belt and Road” opportunity to advance the strategic layout, further optimize financing and cost control capabilities, and the company makes full use of the “Belt and Road” national strategy to promote the strategic layout. It plans to establish a tourism investment development company in a joint venture with professional operation and investment companies, and gradually launch the Lancang-Mekong River integrated tourism real estate project using the Lancang-Mekong River Golden Waterway to further improve the strategic layout of Yunnan tourism real estate. The company's two-wheel drive of “equity acquisition+full development” accelerates the layout of the three major business lines of residential complexes, tourist real estate, and pension real estate, and aims to rank among the top 50 listed housing enterprises in the next 5 years. In the midst of rapid expansion, the company achieved reduction in financing costs and effective cost control. On the one hand, it maintained a low sales expense ratio and management expense ratio through refined management (2.9% and 4.3% in 2015, respectively, a steady decline); on the other hand, it optimized its debt structure through direct financing, successfully issued 3 billion bonds with a 5.7% coupon interest rate in October 2015, effectively reducing financial expenses (the financial cost rate in 2015 was 9.1%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points over the previous year). Maintaining the “Highly Recommended” rating, the company's 2016-2018 EPS is expected to be 0.31, 0.39, and 0.54, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 15X, 12X, and 9X, respectively. The company's profit in 2015 was affected due to the high base effect of the more profitable first-level land development in the previous year and the temporary reduction in settleable commercial projects in the Kunming region; however, the company has sufficient reserves for level 1 and 2 projects, and the obvious regional competitive advantages of the two major product lines of urban complexes and tourist real estate, which will fully benefit from the accelerated recovery of the Yunnan and Chengdu and Chongqing markets, which will fully benefit from the accelerated recovery of the key layout, and the 2016 performance is likely to exceed expectations. The company's development of tourist real estate has a unique location advantage. The profit model is becoming more and more mature, and the brand effect is gradually showing. It is a target for high-quality tourist real estate that is scarce in the real estate sector. The majority shareholders have strong resource endowments in various industries. As its only A-share listing platform, the company's development and transformation is guaranteed by resources. The company takes advantage of the “Belt and Road” style to rapidly advance the strategic layout of the Lancang-Mekong River region, and this area will become another high-quality integrated tourism real estate project area for the company. The company established a five-year order to enter the top 50 listed real estate companies. Through the two-wheel drive of “equity acquisition+full development”, the company accelerated the layout of the three major business lines of residential complexes, tourist real estate, and pension real estate, optimized management and financing capabilities, and maintained rapid expansion while reasonably controlling expenses. Maintain the company's “Highly Recommended” rating. Risk warning: Project sales fell short of expectations.

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