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威龙股份(603779)新股分析:区域性领导品牌 借力有机葡萄酒实现差异化竞争

廣發證券 ·  May 4, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  A leading regional brand with strong ability to withstand pressure, the company's comprehensive index ranks in the top three in the national wine industry. It mainly includes three series of products: traditional wine, organic wine, and grape liquor. Among them, the share of organic wine has increased year by year, accounting for 39% in 2015. There was a clear recovery in performance in 2015, achieving main business revenue of 724 million yuan, a same increase of 2.64%, net profit of 42 million yuan, an increase of 18.47%. The company is deeply involved in East China and continues to account for more than 70% of sales. The company is a private enterprise. The personal interests of company managers and employees tend to be consistent with the company's overall interests, which is conducive to the long-term development of the company. The organic wine market has great potential for growth. Veyron is expected to benefit from the fact that China's organic wine segment is on the rise, and sales volume is growing rapidly. The compound growth rate in 09-12 was as high as 66.59%. Referring to the 15% consumption growth rate in Europe, it is expected that sales will continue to maintain a high growth rate of 30% in the future. China's current consumption scale is relatively small. Compared with Western countries, which account for about 30% of consumption, there is plenty of room for growth. With frequent food safety incidents, organic food is gradually receiving attention from consumers. Organic wine is expected to usher in new growth, and Veyron is expected to benefit as the market leader in this segment. Organic wine is in line with the upgrading of consumption, and has great potential for regional expansion (1) The company's nationalization process is beginning to bear fruit. Sales revenue in the North, South, and Northwest regions increased by 9%, 17%, and 63% respectively in 2015. In 2015, sales revenue in the North, South, and Northwest regions increased by 9%, 17%, and 63%, respectively. The empty market will continue to gain strength in the future, and performance is expected to restorative growth. (2) Organic wine has become the company's go-to product, ranking first in market share, far surpassing second place. However, since the price of organic wine priced at 150-300 yuan was slightly higher than the price of Jiebaina (80 yuan), sales volume fluctuated greatly during industry adjustments. However, we believe that organic wine is in line with the trend of consumption escalation. In the future, with marketing and channel expansion, sales volume is expected to increase further, driving performance growth. It is planned to issue no more than 50.2 million shares of common stock, invest in 18,000 mu of organic wine grape cultivation projects and 40,000 tons of organic wine production project+marketing network construction, and save energy for later organic wine development. The remaining capital will be used to repay bank loans. It is expected that the company's financial expenses will be drastically reduced, bringing greater flexibility to net profit. The investment proposal predicts that the company's net profit growth rate in 16-18 is 63%/32%/13%, and 16-18EPS 0.34/0.45/0.51. Weilong shares will gradually return to normal in 16 and 17 years after listing due to high debt and financial expenses and a large decline in net profit. According to Changyu's valuation, Weilong was given 18 times PE for 17 years, with the company's target price of 8 yuan. Risks suggest a sharp decline in economic growth; organic wine is slow to sell, and production capacity is overcapacity.

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