Recently, we have investigated Anyuan Coal Industry (000983). The company has a stable operation, strictly implements the supply-side reform policy, reduces production capacity by about 1 million tons, and is prepared to take this opportunity to eliminate backward production capacity and divert surplus personnel. It is expected to achieve operating income of 5.3 billion yuan and EPS of 0.02 yuan in 2016. considering that the company benefits from supply-side reform and has a strong desire for transformation, it is given a "highly recommended-A" investment rating.
Supply-side reform
In terms of production capacity, Jiangxi Province has re-approved the coal mine production capacity in the province in accordance with 276 days, requiring all coal enterprises to organize production strictly in accordance with 276 days, and the company has actively implemented the policy of limiting production. At present, the company has 17 pairs of production mines, all of which are located in Jiangxi Province, with an approved capacity of 6.34 million tons, with a reduction of about 1 million tons according to 5.33 million tons after 276 days of re-approval. The company produced 5.58 million tons of raw coal in 2015, and the reapproved production capacity has little impact on the company's output. At the level of Jiangxi Energy Group, there are 33 pairs of mines in the province, with an approved production capacity of 9.75 million tons, which is 8.23 million tons after 276 days. In addition, the group has a total production capacity of 760000 tons in three mines in Guizhou (after reapproval). There are two mines in Indonesia with a total production capacity of 1.5 million tons.
In terms of personnel, at present, there are 14147 employees at the listed company level, and 3312 of the four mines and related asset owners spun off to the group at the end of last year have been taken over by the group. At present, there are 4.4 million employees in the coal industry, with an output of 3.75 billion tons, with an average output of 10,000 tons corresponding to 11.7 employees. The company's annual output in 2015 is 5.58 million tons, which is only 6529 according to the national average, while the company has 17459 employees in 2015. the personnel burden is very heavy. At present, the company is waiting for the central and local supporting policies and funds in place to strive for a large number of diversion personnel to reduce the pressure.
With regard to the idea of capacity replacement, at present, the company's coal mines are all located in Jiangxi, with complete five major disasters, complex geological conditions, backward mining methods and high mining costs. in the future, the company plans to close the production capacity and obtain the quota of capacity replacement. Then go to Yulin and other places in northern Shaanxi to obtain high-quality resources. If the company's main production capacity of 5.33 million tons is completely closed, the quota of 4.44 million tons can be obtained by simple calculation according to the replacement ratio of 1.2.
Future development strategy: the company intends to develop towards the integration of coal and power in the future, and is prepared to build a regional logistics group around the "two lakes and one river" area relying on the Jiujiang coal storage and transportation base, which is located in a comprehensive energy group. Prepare to vigorously develop photovoltaic and other new energy installation.
Coal trading center: the operation is stable, but the turnover is small, and the financial business has not yet been rolled out.
Recent operating status: the company's operating income in the first quarter was only 690 million yuan, down 47% from the same period last year, mainly due to the suspension of coal production during the Spring Festival holiday and a sharp decline in coal production and sales. At present, the price of thermal coal and coking clean coal of the company is basically the same as that of the northern port, and there has been a rebound of about 30-50 yuan per ton compared with the previous low. after May 1, the production restriction policy has been officially implemented, the supply has shrunk sharply, the coal supply is tight, and the price increase is expected in the later period.
Profit forecast and investment strategy: it is expected to achieve an income of 5.3 billion yuan and an EPS of 0.02 yuan per share in 2016. considering that the company benefits from supply-side reform, and as the only listing platform of Jiangxi Energy Group, benefits from the group's asset integration and strong desire for transformation, it is given a "highly recommended-A" investment rating.
Risk hint: the progress and intensity of supply-side reform is lower than expected