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宝胜股份(600973)点评:打造中航系特种电缆平台

財達證券 ·  May 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Abstract: Transfer of shares to join the China Aviation Industry System. On July 30, 2014, after the free share transfer was completed, Baosheng Group's shareholding structure was changed to: China Aviation Industry Group Mechatronic Systems Company holds 75% of the shares and the Yangzhou Municipal State-owned Assets Administration Commission holds 25% of the shares. China Aviation Industry Group has become the company's new actual controller, which indicates that one of Baosheng Group's future development priorities will be to expand into the military sector, especially for the development of China's aviation industry, including military aviation cables and civil aviation cables (various types of civil aircraft). After the acquisition of Baosheng Co., Ltd., China Aviation Industry Group is expected to achieve independent production of high-end aviation cables through strong investment in research and development. A considerable market share and a considerable gross profit margin will be able to bring rich revenue and performance to related companies. Special cables are in their infancy in China. They are high-end products among cable products, and a significant part of the demand needs to be achieved through imports. Special cables include nuclear power cables, submarine cables, rail transit cables, petroleum platform cables, environmentally friendly wires and cables, new energy cables, etc. According to the data, the total annual demand for China's special cable market is around 40 billion yuan, and it is still growing at an annual rate of 20%. Baosheng Co., Ltd. has accelerated its expansion into the field of special cables in recent years. After integration into the Chinese aviation system, the market development capacity of the special cable business is expected to be further strengthened. If the company can obtain a market share of 20%-30% in the future, it can increase the company's revenue by about 10 billion yuan. Performance forecast: EPS is expected to be 0.37 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.54 yuan respectively in the next three years from 2016 to 2018, and the corresponding PE will be 30 times, 26 times, and 21 times, respectively. Give the company an “gain” rating. Risk warning: 1) There is a risk that the integration progress will fall short of expectations after integration into the China Aviation System; 2) the risk that the market development of new products falls short of expectations; 3) there is a risk that the release of production capacity will cause the industry to oversupply and increase in market competition, leading to a decline in the gross margin of the company's new products.

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