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广东明珠(600382)点评:粤上明珠升 成长大幕启

國泰君安 ·  May 16, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key points of investment: It will definitely increase and maintain the rating for increasing holdings. Due to changes in expectations for the company's first-level land development progress, the 2017 EPS was lowered by 17% to 2.05 yuan. EPS in 2016/17 is expected to be 1.63 and 2.05 yuan, with growth rates of 254% and 26%, respectively. The company's targeted increase was approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission Development Review Committee. As the company's only listing platform for the majority shareholders, the shareholding ratio will increase to 42.5% after the fixed increase, which is full of endogenous motivation. At the same time, first-level land development projects will provide the company with continued cash flow and performance, and provide a solid foundation for subsequent transformation. Maintain the company's shareholding increase rating. The target price is 22 yuan, corresponding to 13.5 times PE in 2016 before the fixed increase. The quality of assets is high, and the release of performance is accelerating. The company's balance ratio is only 9%, and the quality of core assets such as Dading Mining and other financial shares is of high quality. Demand for urban expansion in Xingning City continues to grow. The company actively participated in first-level land development in the Southern New Town. It is expected to contribute 2.4 billion yuan in land concession revenue over the next five years. At the same time, it will also accumulate experience in PPP cooperation models with the government, laying the foundation for obtaining larger first-level land development projects in the future. It has both safety margins and endogenous motivation. Major shareholders (including those acting in concert) fully subscribed by 2 billion yuan, with a fixed increase of 2 billion yuan, further improving control, and subsequent endogenous motivation increased markedly. The minimum fixed increase price is 14.97 yuan. Currently, the stock price is only 12.31 yuan, and the margin of safety is sufficient. With the sharp increase in the shareholding ratio of the majority shareholders, the company's development will also enter a new stage, and the growth curtain will officially begin. Subsequent transformation is imperative. The expansion of emerging industries is expected to boost the company's current low valuation level, the first-level development business will boost performance growth, and Davis is about to double click. Expected catalysts include obtaining fixed and additional approvals, and diversified transformation being implemented one after another. Risk warning: There is some uncertainty about the collaborative development of major shareholders and first-level land development business.

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