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恒泰实达(300513):专业电网信息化解决方案提供商 技术优势突出 行业壁垒较高

海通證券 ·  May 31, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Information technology service provider for power grid companies. The company is a company that mainly provides information technology services to power grid companies. It provides customers with intelligent control center solutions and comprehensive monitoring and production process management solutions in smart grid-related fields. Through information technology such as platformization, visualization, and interaction, the company realizes efficient management of transmission, transformation, distribution, electricity use and scheduling of power grid enterprises. The company's shareholding structure is quite concentrated. The controlling shareholders and actual controllers of the company are Mr. Qian Sujin and his wife Zhang Xiaohong. Qian Sujin is currently the chairman and general manager of the company, holding 18.73 million shares, accounting for 32.8% of the company's total share capital before issuance; Zhang Xiaohong is a current director of the company, holding 7.9 million shares, accounting for 13.8% of the company's total share capital before issuance; the two hold a total of 26.63 million shares of the company, accounting for 46.6% of the company's total share capital before issuance. Smart grid construction is developing rapidly, and intelligence and visualization are the development direction. In order to respond more quickly and accurately to changes in business and improve the efficiency of institutional operations, large enterprises and government agencies use network technology to continuously integrate internal information resources and begin to build “intelligent control centers” integrating functions such as monitoring centers, dispatch and control centers, and command centers. In terms of power grid informatization, with the smart grid construction plan and the introduction of the State Grid Corporation Resource Planning System (“SG-ERP”), power grid companies' investment in informatization will continue to grow steadily, and with the introduction of new IT technologies such as the Internet of Things, intelligence and visualization are also important development directions. In addition to being widely used by power grid companies, the core technology related to the company's intelligent control center can also be promoted and applied to industries with extensive business coverage and complex network structures, such as telecommunications, transportation, and government affairs. The entry barriers are high, and the company's technical advantages are outstanding, providing users with comprehensive solutions. The company's intelligent control center solutions and production safety monitoring related solutions have strong technical advantages in visualization and intelligence. In terms of intelligent control center applications, the company's business covers the whole country and is in a relatively leading position in the market. In the future stage of deepening the application of power grid informatization, the company has a first-mover advantage. In the field of integrated monitoring and production process management solutions in smart grid-related fields, Nanjing Nanrui Group is the industry leader, and the company is also in a relatively leading position in developing major systems in this field. Fund-raising projects bring technological upgrades to meet the new needs of the market. The company publicly issued 19.06 million shares, all of which were purchased online. After deducting issuance fees, the plan raised about 196 million yuan in capital for intelligent control center solution R&D and upgrading projects, smart grid safety production monitoring solution R&D and upgrading projects, and marketing and service network construction projects. This fund-raising project will lead a new trend in the company's business development, enhance the competitiveness of the original solutions and products in terms of functional design, user experience, ease of use, maintainability, implementation efficiency, adaptability, etc., and enrich and improve the product system. Investment advice. We forecast net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from 2016 to 2018 to be 45.44 million yuan, 54.35 million yuan and 66.85 million yuan respectively, and EPS of 0.60 yuan, 0.71 yuan and 0.88 yuan respectively, with a compound growth rate of about 20% over the next three years. The company's current stock price is 16.89 yuan, corresponding to the predicted EPS price-earnings ratio of about 28 times in 2016. Considering the development prospects of the company's industry, corresponding entry barriers and the company's leading technical advantages, and referring to comparable company valuations, we believe that the company's reasonable valuation corresponds to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of about 60 times that of 2016, and the corresponding target price is 36.00 yuan, which gives a “buy” rating for the first time. Risk warning. Smart grid market expansion falls short of expectations; risk of policy changes.

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