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金贵银业(002716)点评:收购矿山资源打造白银“全产业链+”战略 维持公司“推荐”评级

銀河證券 ·  Jun 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: 1. Incident Financial Banking issued an announcement. The company's acquisition of 66% of the shares of Tibet Gold and Mining Co., Ltd. with its own capital and special loans totaling 48 million yuan was reviewed and approved by the company's board of directors. 2. Our analysis and judgment (1) Gold and Mining, which is the subject of the acquisition, has high-quality lead-zinc-silver-copper polymetallic ores Gold and Mining, which is the target of the company's acquisition, is a non-ferrous metal resource-based mining enterprise mainly engaged in the mining and selection of polymetallic ores such as lead, zinc, and silver. The company owns mining rights in the lead-zinc mine in the eastern section of the Qingpu mining area in Tibet, with resource reserves of 530,900 tons of lead metal, an average grade of 8.74%; zinc metal, 157,400 tons, an average grade of 2.59%; associated silver, 862.28 tons, an average grade of 142 g/t; associated copper reserves of 19,500 tons, an average grade of 0.37%. Gold and Mining currently has a mining capacity of 100,000 tons/year. In 2015, it produced 8420.28 tons of lead, 2563.95 tons of zinc, and 14,951 kg of silver. It is expected that its mining capacity will expand to 250,000 tons/year in 2019. The main advantage of the gold and mining industry is that polymetallic symbiotic ores, mainly lead and zinc, also contain silver, and have high comprehensive recovery value. They promise that the cumulative net profit for 2016-2018 and the above three years is 44.93669 million yuan, 67.4053 million yuan, 956.23 million yuan, and 208.045 million yuan, respectively. Furthermore, the gold and mining industry's existing mines and mining belts extending within the eastern section of the Qingpu mining area still have great prospecting potential, and the potential development value is high. (2) Upstream expands acquisition resources and makes every effort to build a “whole industry chain+” development strategy. The precious banking industry is one of the important bases for silver production and export in China, and has the country's leading clean silver smelting and deep processing technology. With the completion and commissioning of the company's “100,000 tons of lead-oxygen-rich bottom blowing project” and the completion of the “Silver Upgrading Technology Improvement Project”, one of the listed fund-raising projects, the company has formed a smelting and processing capacity of 600 tons of silver in the middle of the industrial chain per year. This time, the company acquired Gold and Mining, extended the silver industry chain from midstream smelting and downstream deep processing to further exploration and selection of lead-zinc ore in the upstream resource sector, greatly increasing the company's resource reserves, relieving the pressure of resource acquisition and raw material price fluctuations in the company's middle and downstream silver smelting and processing business, and transforming the company from a simple smelting and processing enterprise to an integrated enterprise for non-ferrous metal resource extraction, smelting and processing, and building the company's “silver-rich lead concentrates - lead anodes - silver (and comprehensive recycling of other valuable metals) - deep silver processing products —The silver “whole industry chain +” of “Internet +” The strategy has greatly enhanced the company's profit elasticity, development potential and core competitiveness, and laid a solid foundation for the company to grow into the world's leading integrated service provider for the silver industry. 3. Investment suggests that the fall in the US dollar is compounded by inflation expectations. Precious metal prices will continue to rise, while the upward elasticity of silver will be greater than that of gold. Among all commodity non-ferrous metals, the price of silver ranked first in year-to-date increase. The company acquired gold and mining, expanded upstream, obtained lead, zinc and silver resources, built a “whole industry chain +” strategy, and is committed to becoming the number one silver stock in the world. The company will fully benefit from the rise in silver prices and become the first flexible precious metal stock. It is estimated that the company's 2016-2017 EPS will be 0.63 and 0.91 yuan, and the corresponding PE for 2016 and 2017 will be 28x and 20x, maintaining the “recommended” rating. 4. Risk warning 1) Prices of non-ferrous metals such as silver have fallen sharply; 2) the release of production capacity from the company's fund-raising projects falls short of expectations; 3) the company's acquisition of gold and mining is progressing slower than expected.

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