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联众(6899.HK):运营商再次整顿话费支付 移动端收入大幅下降

興業證券 ·  May 31, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points Our view: Mobile revenue declined significantly year over year due to the restructuring of phone bill payment channels, but the PC side's performance was better than expected, which moderated to a certain extent. We continue to be optimistic about Lianzhong's long-term development strategy to build five major ecosystem businesses. Each business will independently generate revenue while collaborating with other businesses to channel mutual flows and increase user stickiness and satisfaction. However, in the short term, the company's focus is on new overseas games launched during the summer program and the bidding for broadcasting rights for the 2016 WPT tournament. 1) WPT's games will be distributed overseas. Game development is nearing completion, and we expect the closed beta to begin soon. 2) The 2016 WPT International Competition will be held in October, and the live streaming rights and subsequent broadcasting rights are expected to be announced in the beginning of the third quarter. Conservatively, it is estimated that the license fee will be at the level of 10 million, which is incremental revenue compared to last year. 2016Q1 operating data: Q1 total revenue was 195 million yuan, up 18.5% year on year; net profit was 21.931 million yuan, down 22.3% year on year. The total MAU for the first quarter was 256.97 million yuan, down 17.2% year on year; MPU was 15.69 million, down 14.3% year on year; PC ARPPU was 90.5 yuan, up 39.4% year on year, while mobile ARPPU was 18.5 yuan, down 11.9% year on year. Profit forecast and valuation: We have lowered our original profit forecast. We forecast the company's revenue for 2016\ 2017\ 2018 to be $8.1\ 9.4\ 1.07 billion, and profit of $1.19\ 1.44\ 146 million respectively. We maintain our “buy rating” and give a target price of HK$4.7 for 12 months, corresponding to 25 times EPS in 2016. Risk warning: 1) There is great uncertainty about the new game; 2) the development of the new business may fall short of expectations.

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