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未名医药(002581)深度研究:生物制品领域新秀 新品EV71即将上市

海通證券 ·  Jun 7, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The new face of the capital market: Wanchang Technology, as a leader in the fine chemical intermediate segment, has become the largest producer of trimethyl oroformate and triethyl orthocarboxylate (pesticides, pharmaceutical intermediates) in the country. On October 20, 2015, Unknown Pharmaceutical completed its listing through the backdoor of Wanchang Technology, and promised that the net profit achieved in 2015, 2016, and 2017 would not be less than 223 million yuan, 302 million yuan, and 368 million yuan, respectively. At present, Weiming Pharmaceutical has fulfilled its 2015 performance commitments: operating income of 858 million yuan in 2015, an increase of 37.48% over the previous year; and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 250 million yuan, an increase of 11.22% over the previous year. Main products: main assets (100% shareholding), the main type of mouse neurogrowth factor of unknown biomedicine, has stabilized to occupy the second largest market share in China, and is expected to regain first place as channels expand and indications after listing; Sun Company (holding 60%) Tianjin's unknown recombinant human interferon, Anfulon, is expected to increase its original market share under the promotion of a new hierarchical sales network; participating companies (26.91%) Beijing Kexing Biotech's main products include China's No. 1 inactivated hepatitis A vaccine, “Children”, the first branch in China, the second in the world Hepatitis B combination vaccine “Bellevue”, China's first influenza pandemic vaccine (avian influenza vaccine for human use) “Panerlaif”, and the world's first approved influenza A (H1N1) virus lytic vaccine “Hopelaiful.” “1” and the only domestically produced influenza vaccine that does not contain preservatives (thiomersal), and the world's first new class 1 bioproduct, EV71 vaccine “Yerlaif”. Future new products: The new EV71 vaccine Yilaifu, a participating company, is about to be marketed and sold, which is expected to bring new performance growth to the company; the company has submitted a privatization deal offer to Kexing Holdings. If privatization is successful, the product is expected to continue to be rich; after the company's product tiger pain relief peptide is clinically marketed in the next few years, it is expected to become an analgesic alternative to morphine; there are plenty of other research projects, such as pneumococcal vaccine, influenza B encephalitis vaccine, stem cell factor, wolf inhibitory peptide, and growth factor 9 X9 inhibitors, etc., future growth Expectable. Expectations for external mergers and acquisitions are strong: Peking University Weiming Group also has many biomedical companies, such as Anhui Weiming (building the world's largest antibody drug R&D and production base) and Jiangsu Weiming (building the world's largest insulin company). Weiming Pharmaceutical is its only biomedical integration platform, and expectations for future asset injection are strong. Profit forecast and investment advice: buy, for the first time. The company's earnings per share for 2016-2018 are expected to be 0.62 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 0.92 yuan respectively. The closing price of 25.16 yuan on June 6, 2016 is about 41 times the PE per share corresponding to 2016 earnings per share. Referring to the valuation situation of comparable companies, and considering that the company has a dual main business of “Wanchang headquarters+unknown pharmaceuticals”, and has a solid layout in the field of biological products, and is fully motivated to expand new products in the future, we gave PE about 52 times that of 2016, with a corresponding target price of 32 yuan. A “buy” rating was given for the first time. Risk warning: new product development and promotion risks, progress of Kexon's privatization, extension progress.

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