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中化岩土(002542)深度研究:对标BBA 打造国内通航建设第一股

華泰證券 ·  Jun 7, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Leading geotechnical engineering service provider, epitaxial mergers and acquisitions layout The new aviation industry company is a leading domestic provider of geotechnical engineering and underground space engineering services. Through epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, a business system centered on technologies such as strong compaction, foundation pit support, continuous underground walls, pile foundation engineering, and composite foundations has been formed. The company has actively entered the general aviation business through a fixed increase in the acquisition of general aviation targets such as Zhejiang Zhongqing and the establishment of a new subsidiary of Quantai General Aviation. It will target BBA, a leading international navigation leader, which will help open up new space for growth in traditional engineering business and form a breakthrough point in the layout of emerging industries in the future. Through a 30% shareholding investment in Kyushu culture and full copyright development around Kyushu, the first series of works, “The Book of Pastoral Clouds at Sea,” has now been defeated. It is expected to premiere within the year, and high performance growth can be expected. Navigation reform policies have been introduced one after another, and the obvious benefits of pure navigable airport targets have been introduced. The government has successively introduced relevant policies to resolve the two major constraints of opening up low-altitude airspace and the construction of general aviation airports that plague the development of the general aviation industry. Currently, China's general aviation industry is in its infancy, and the scale of the industry is relatively small. 200/1,600 aviation airports will be built in the next five or fifteen years, with an average annual investment of more than 20 billion yuan over the next 15 years, according to estimates of a single investment of 200 million yuan. Benefiting from the flexibility of the industrial chain, we are optimistic about airport construction first, and airport operations in the long term. Benchmarking BBA and building the first stock to integrate the construction and operation of domestic general aviation airports, Signature, a subsidiary of BBA, is the world's largest general aviation airport operation service company. After completing the acquisition of the third landmark in the US in February this year, it has operated a total of 195 FBOs, with a total market value of 2.114 billion pounds, and a historical PE of 46 times. As a genuine navigable airport target, the company has the absolute advantage of extending from rocky underground engineering to airport infrastructure. The company plans to invest in the construction of 50-100 navigable airports over the next 5 years, which can reach 10-20 billion yuan based on a single unit estimate of 200 million yuan. The net profit rate for the construction process is more than 20%, and the operating process is about 10%, adding a total of 3 to 6 billion yuan in net profit for the company. The company plans to increase profits through asset securitization to package general aviation airports in advance, or refer to BBA to expand to the back end of the industrial chain such as airport service operations, official commercial flights, and pilot training through acquisitions and new installations. There is plenty of room for imagination. Anji Airport is expected to be completed in August, and a license will be applied for at the end of the year, so it is expected that the operational side will be implemented at an accelerated pace. Engineering services are growing steadily, and investing in media cultivates new growth points. In 2011-2015, the company's operating income rose from 264 million yuan to 1,931 million yuan, CAGR 64%; net profit from net profit increased from 50 million yuan to 227 million yuan, and CAGR 46%. Strong mergers and acquisitions targets in 2014, and Yuanfang contributed 66.57 million yuan and 64.65 million yuan in net profit last year respectively. The geotechnical industry concentration is low, and the company's market share as a leading enterprise is still less than 1%. In the future, it is not ruled out that it will continue to exert scale effects through mergers and acquisitions to increase profit margins. The investment in Kyushu in 2015 confirmed an investment income of 1,8685 million yuan, and this year it is expected that it will significantly benefit from the screening of “Sea Animal Husbandry”. First coverage gave the company a “buy” rating. The profit of the main geotechnical engineering business in 2016 is expected to be 345 million yuan, giving a 45-50 times PE valuation, corresponding to a market value of 155-17.3 billion yuan; the IP media business profit is expected to be 25 million, giving a 40-45 times PE valuation, corresponding to a market value of 1-1.1 billion yuan. The total market value of the two is 16.5-184 billion yuan, and the reasonable second-level market price range is 9.46-10.52 yuan (corresponding to 45-50 times PE in 2016). The first coverage gives a “buy” rating. Risk warning: General aviation business expansion falls short of expectations; integrated acquisitions in the geotechnical industry fall short of expectations; accounts receivable cannot be recovered risk.

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