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科泰电源(300153):车辆运营 新能源车产业链“皇冠上的明珠”

方正證券 ·  Jun 16, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  We believe that with the explosion of new energy vehicles in recent years, the stock market is further stabilized, and more logistics vehicles/buses/special vehicles/passenger vehicles will enter the field of operation in the future. The NEV operating market has thus opened up. Advantages of NEV operation: 1) Compared with itself, it can minimize the impact of battery range and charging time. Due to technical problems on the charging pile side, power batteries at this stage do not support fast charging in the true sense of the word. Charging time in a low battery state takes about 2 hours, while operating vehicles, mainly logistics vehicles, have a relatively small driving range and usually do not require a long range to reach the target location for charging. 2) Compared with traditional vehicles, new energy vehicles can receive subsidies at the central and local levels to reduce purchase costs. At the same time, the use of electric drives also greatly reduces subsequent fuel and maintenance costs. The competitiveness is significantly greater than that of traditional cars. 3) Vehicle operation is an important entry point for the future of the Internet. LeTV's acquisition of EasyGo Auto and Apple's strategic investment in Didi Taxi already foreshadows the future of industrial development! The company is the leading operator of new energy vehicles, and the holding subsidiary Jietai New Energy specializes in logistics vehicle/passenger vehicle operation and charging pile services. The company is located in Shanghai. The role of Shanghai is China's financial center and shipping center. It has a high population density and carries a large demand for the circulation of goods and manpower. At the same time, the company set up subsidiaries in 6 locations including Beijing, Guangdong, and Fujian, and its business spans economic regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, etc., rapidly forming large-scale markets across the country and consolidating the company's leading position in vehicle operations. Downstream customers for vehicle operations are generally emerging industries. Urban logistics vehicle customers include third-party logistics, express delivery, e-commerce, and Internet O2O platforms. Urban passenger vehicle customers mainly include Internet vehicle platforms such as Tak Tak Bus. Vehicle operation can cooperate with the company's charging pile service to form comprehensive services and improve the NEV industry chain. In addition to the operating platform, the company is also actively building a manufacturing platform for core components for new energy vehicles. The holding subsidiary Jetstar's original business was electric motors and electronic control for new energy vehicles, and later laid out the BMS and ternary battery pack business to form the “three electricity” for new energy vehicles. With the further development of the passenger car market, the ternary materials market is expected to expand further, and the company's business can be expected to grow rapidly. “Three electricity” +operating platform+charging pile service, the company's NEV ecosystem was initially formed. We expect the company's EPS for 2016-2018 to be 0.30, 0.65, and 1.22 yuan/share, corresponding to the closing price on June 13 (22.00 yuan/share), and PE is 73, 43, and 18 times, respectively. Based on strong optimism about the future of the ternary materials market and the subsequent development of the new energy vehicle operation market, it is “highly recommended”. Risk warning: The impact of the delay in implementing the NEV subsidy policy on the market. The risk of a company's operating business falling short of expectations.

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