Market Watch 1. [Imported soybeans] For the week ending May 26, the current annual market net sales of soybeans were 309,400 tons per week, and the weekly export of soybeans was 212,200 tons. As of May 26, the export inspection volume of soybeans was 182,300 tons, and the cumulative export inspection volume was 43.4 million tons, compared to 46.97 million tons in the same period last year. According to the current export sales situation, the June 10 supply and demand report will inevitably reverse exports and reduce old inventory. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina released a weekly report showing that as of June 2, soybean harvesting progress was 78.7%, compared with 72.1% last week and 93.5% in the same period last year. Currently, the US soybean cultivation rate is 73%, expected to be 70%, 56% the previous week, 68% in the same period last year, and the five-year average is 66%. The soybean germination rate was 45%, 22% the previous week, 44% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 40%. The progress of corn cultivation was 94%, compared to 86% in the previous week, 94% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 92%. According to the analysis of the planting schedule, the situation where soybeans are being sown faster and corn is being sown slowly continues. In the future, the area under soybean cultivation may increase by at least 1 million acres. This is the main negative factor in the current market. Informa expects 83 million acres of soybeans to be planted in the US in 2016, an increase of 800,000 acres over the Department of Agriculture's previous forecast. Market rumor has it that India may cut soybean cultivation area by 5%-10%, while arid weather is not conducive to the germination of soybeans planted in summer. SOPA expects production to drop from 7.4 million tons to 6.93 million tons. 2. [Palm oil] In April, Malaysia produced 1.3 million tons, +6.7% month-on-month. Previously, the market forecast was 1.32 million tons; exports were 1.164,500 tons, consistent with expectations of -12.8% month-on-month; inventory at the end of the period was 1.8 million tons, -4.5% month-on-month, which was basically in line with expectations, with slight bias. Judging from the absolute volume of production, it is still at a historically low level, and the recovery is not ideal. ITS announced that Malaysian brown exports increased 11.2% month-on-month to 1,233,300 tons on May 1-31, and SGS announced that Malaysian brown exports increased 15% month-on-month to 1.251,700 tons from May 1 to 31. The main increase came from India. The market believes that it was due to early preparation of stocks for Ramadan, which began in early June. According to historical data from SGS, the current export volume is similar to the same period in '13. MPOB's final report on export volume in May '13 showed 1.41 million tons. It is expected that in May this year the inventory volume of horse brown will be between 16 and 1.65 million tons at the end of the month. It is conducive to a further rebound in horse palm oil. The MPOA report shows that horse brown production increased 1.6% month-on-month from May 1-20. The month-on-month increase slowed further from last month. Since the consumption ratio of global oil and fat stocks is still declining, fats and oils are still in a bullish market pattern, and there is no basis for a sharp shorting. Looking at it now, palm oil is in the midst of a sharp decline and rebound, and the domestic base difference and import inversion will all be repaired. 3. [Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal] In the week ending June 3, the operating rate dropped 2.7 percentage points to 57.35%. 1.82 million tons of soybeans were pressed this week. Due to strict commercial inspection of soybeans and increased unloading time, some oil mills shut down because soybeans were not connected. A total of 54.55 million tons of soybeans were pressed nationwide in 2015/16, an increase of 5.28 million tons over the same period last year, or 10.71%. The natural annual pressing volume was 32.62 million tons, an increase of 2.28 million tons over the same period last year, an increase of 7.5%. Port stocks of imported soybeans reached 6.20,800 tons, an increase of 177,200 tons over the previous week. As of May 29, oil mills in coastal regions had stocks of 720,000 tons of soybean meal, an increase of about 60,000 tons over the previous week. 3.47 million tons had not been executed, and an increase of about 600,000 tons over the previous week. According to the world's granary estimates, 8.18 million tons in May, 8.08 million tons in June, 7.8 million tons in July, and 7.5 million tons in August. Domestic soybean auctions postponed. In terms of soybean meal: Downstream purchases have increased, delivery is fast, operating rates have reached a high level, soybean meal stocks have increased slightly, and the domestic soybean meal base has declined slightly. The pig stock in April increased slightly by 0.6% month-on-month, the first increase since October last year. The number of sows that can be raised increased by 0.3% compared to March, and farming has begun to recover. Demand for soybean meal is expected to improve significantly by September of this year. Due to delays in harvesting and shipping in Argentina, Southeast Asia purchases soybean meal from China. Domestic soybean meal exports are relatively profitable, and the amount of soybean meal exported in May is expected to reach 300,000 tons. Overall, soybean meal futures prices fluctuate along with soybeans. It is no longer possible for soybean meal to return to its previous low for a long time. With the resumption of farming in the second half of the year and speculation about the weather in soybeans, soybean meal prices may reach new highs. It is recommended to go long on dips. The short-term spot base gap is likely to fall under pressure. Due to continued rainfall in East China, soybean meal from oil mills is not being shipped smoothly. The price of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate between 2,800 and 3000 in June. The area report in early July may cause a short-term decline in soybean meal, but La Niña is likely to arrive in the middle to late, which is expected to drive soybean meal to break through 3000. Soybean oil: Soybean oil stocks are accumulating slower than expected, and remain relatively weak in the short term. Soybean oil is still popular in the medium to long term. It showed a broadly fluctuating upward pattern. 4. [Vegetable oil and rapeseed meal] Domestic rapeseed production continued to drop drastically this year. The main reason was the reduction in planting area due to economic effects, the reduction in farmers' production investment per unit area, and the impact of cold tide weather. Canada's rapeseed cultivation area has been reduced by about 4% this year, and the reduction in production may reach 5-10%. Up to now, 3 million tons have been auctioned, and 2.28 million tons have actually been sold. Currently, the dumping of vegetable oil is likely to be suspended. Currently, it is expected that only 400,000 tons will go out of storage, which will have limited impact on soybean oil. Recently, the price difference of soybean oil has been drastically fixed, and the strength of vegetable oil has also led to profits for imported vegetable oil. Sales of rapeseed meal remain at an all-time high, and there are clear signs that demand for aquaculture has begun. The future of rapeseed meal is still bullish, and the price spread of soybean meal tends to narrow.