Peking University pharmaceutical battleships set sail, driven by dual main industries, and Peking University pharmaceutical battleships set sail: in 2015, unknown pharmaceuticals and the former Wanchang Technology completed asset restructuring, forming a business pattern driven by both intermediates and biopharmaceuticals. Based on the decline in marketing channels in the short term, and applications for new indications in the long term, the compound growth rate is expected to reach 20% in the next 3 years; the intermediate business market pattern is stable, relying on its leading position in the market segment, and contributing about 100 million yuan in net profit each year will be a probable event; the unknown interferon business in Tianjin is expected to turn losses into profits in 2016 and usher in an inflection point in performance with the launch of new equipment and increased marketing efforts. Beijing Kexing - High-quality vaccine assets on the eve of performance reduction: With the introduction of the new vaccine policy rules and the implementation of regulatory risk boots, the vaccine industry is expected to return to the right track. The EV71 vaccine, which began marketing in June this year, is mainly used to prevent hand, foot, and mouth disease in infants. Currently, there are only two manufacturers, Beijing Kexing and Kunming. There is a lot of room for the stock market for children aged 0-3 and the incremental market for newborns brought about by the liberalization of second children, and terminals are expected to expand rapidly. The EV71 is expected to generate 3-4 billion yuan in 2016, which is expected to bring about 50 million yuan in profit growth to the parent company. In the long run, the EV71 vaccine is expected to become a major variety with sales exceeding 1 billion dollars. Submitting the privatization offer of Kexon Holdings, future development is worth looking forward to: senior management of Kexon Holdings and unknown senior management have successively initiated buyer groups, and at the same time initiated the privatization process of Kexon Holdings. Since the two buying groups have deep roots and have played a key role in the business development of Beijing Kexing, we think it is likely that the two sides will achieve in-depth cooperation and jointly promote the return of Kexing Holdings. If Beijing Kexing fully invests in, under strong expectations of EV71 sales volume, the company's future performance elasticity will be highly imaginable. Investment advice: We expect revenue growth in 2016-18 to be 52.66%, 16.58%, and 16.03% respectively; EPS is 0.64, 0.77, and 0.96 yuan, respectively, compared to current stock prices PE of 43X, 35X, and 28X, respectively. An investment rating of buy-A was given for the first time, and the target price for the next 12 months is 34 yuan. Risk warning: EV71 vaccine sales fell short of expectations; Beijing Kexing's traditional vaccine performance was uncertain; Kexing Biotech's privatization process was slower than expected; and Enjingfu's revenue growth rate fell short of expectations.
未名医药(002581)深度研究:北大系医药战舰扬帆起航
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