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天业股份(600807)深度报告:多元战略布局初形成 业绩有望迎来拐点

國海證券 ·  Jun 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: The transformation and upgrading strategy is being formed, and M&A funds and industrial venture capital are building a new ecosystem. The company has successively acquired Tianye Microfinance and Bosheng Leasing through merger and acquisition funds, and recently increased capital by Wanhe Leasing to rapidly accumulate financial and Internet resources. Furthermore, the company announced a fixed increase plan in December 2015. It plans to raise no more than 3.2 billion yuan to increase capital for Tianye Microfinance, Boshen Leasing and Community Finance Internet integrated service platform construction projects; the venture capital sector is expected to achieve high capital appreciation through participation in registered networks and 360 privatization projects. Benefiting from the bottom up in gold prices, the optimization of the industrial chain structure greatly enhanced the mining industry's performance in 2016. Affected by the uncertain expectations of Brexit and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, gold has become the best-performing commodity this year. The company holds 1.67 million ounces of gold metal in Australia's Mingal mining area. The company continues to optimize the selection and sales links in the industrial chain. Cost improvements and efficiency improvements combined with the continued rise in gold prices will lead to breakthroughs in the company's mining business. Target Mining's performance promises for 2016-2017 are 171.42 million yuan and 134.13 million yuan respectively, further guaranteeing the company's mining business revenue. The traditional real estate business sought a breakthrough and entered Shenzhen to open a new path of layout. Since formulating plans to enter first-tier cities in 2015, the company has initially built a regional expansion platform through the establishment of Shenzhen Tianying Hengji and joined hands with Cinda to subscribe to a real estate merger and acquisition fund, and successfully entered Shenzhen through cooperative development. Furthermore, the company's Tianyelong Aotian Street project in Jinan will enter large-scale settlement in 2016. The total value of the project in the province is close to 1.5 billion yuan. It is estimated that real estate settlement revenue in 2016 will exceed 900 million yuan. Valuation analysis: Considering that the fixed increase in financial business has not yet been completed, based on prudential principles, we are not considering the impact of additional issuance on the company's performance. It is estimated that in 2016 to 2018, the company will achieve net profit of 167 million yuan, 182 million yuan, and 207 million yuan, respectively, and EPS of 0.19 yuan, 0.21 yuan, and 0.23 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 63 times, 58 times, and 50.8 times, respectively, covering the “buy” rating. Risk warning: First-tier city expansion falls short of expectations, Internet finance and financial leasing industry policy risks, 360's return to A-share process falls short of expectations, risk of fixed growth failure, risk of overseas business development risk, risk of related projects falling short of expectations, risk of gold price fluctuations, etc.

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