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大通燃气(000593)深度研究:分布式能源优质高弹性标的

廣發證券 ·  Jun 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

It made every effort to transform the natural gas distribution sector, and became the first IDC distributed project company, known as Chengdu Hualian. In 2005, Chase Group took ownership, and the holding ratio reached 40% after two additional sales. In June 2016, the company announced the termination of commercial retail business and made every effort to transform the natural gas distribution and distribution sector. The current business includes 4 gas distribution businesses (distributed in Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Dalian) and 1 IDC distributed natural gas project (Shanghai, to be acquired). The company still owns about 80,000 square meters of commercial real estate such as Hualian Commercial Building, with a revaluation value of more than 1 billion yuan. The distributed natural gas sector will rapidly explode. The market space exceeds 100 billion yuan. Driven by the reduction in natural gas prices plus electricity reform, distributed natural gas projects have the conditions for comprehensive promotion. We estimate that the distributed natural gas market is expected to reach 128.8 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 22% to 30%. We expect distributed natural gas projects to explode rapidly over the next two years, particularly in applications such as IDC data centers, hotels, hospitals, and airports. Among them, IDC is a good application area for distributed natural gas projects. According to China's IDC circle, China's IDC industry will maintain a rapid growth rate of about 40% in the future. In response to investment estimates, the distributed energy market space for the IDC sector alone will reach 9.5 billion yuan in the next 3 years. The first IDC distributed project (proposed acquisition) is expected to be put into operation by the end of the year. It is expected that the company's first IDC distributed energy project (Huanchuan, Shanghai) will be put into operation by the end of 2016. The project will provide distributed energy for IDC's leading enterprise Aura New Network Haijiading IDC Center. This project is the first project managed by Ruishi, an industrial merger and acquisition fund set up by the company as a joint venture, to be acquired by a listed company. It is expected that the model will continue to be replicated in the future. In addition, the company has set up an energy business platform company. It is expected that the platform will introduce more partners and expand energy projects through various channels (not limited to Ruishi Management). We expect the company's orders for distributed projects such as IDC to increase rapidly. Benefiting from the explosion in demand for distributed projects, orders drive high performance flexibility, and the “buy” ratings are expected to be 0.11, 0.22, and 0.35 yuan for 2016-18 EPS, respectively, and 56 times and 35 times PE for 17-18, respectively. Although the company's valuation is not cheap, we are optimistic about the rapid explosion of the distributed natural gas industry. The company has a first-mover advantage in IDC projects and is expected to quickly occupy the market. The company's balance ratio is low, and the value of realizable commercial real estate exceeds 1 billion yuan, and its capital strength is sufficient. The fixed increase in the company has been completed, and employee shareholding locks in the long-term interests of management. We are optimistic about the high performance flexibility brought about by distributed natural gas projects. Give a “buy” rating. Risk warning: distributed new orders grew less than expected; other asset impairment losses or losses

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