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帝龙新材(002247)简评:美生元5月顺利过户 2016H1业绩预告大幅提升

中信建投 ·  Jun 30, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  On the evening of June 28, the company issued an announcement to revise the 2016 semi-annual results forecast. The year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was revised from 10%-40% to 150%-180%. According to a brief review of Meishengyuan's transfers in May, net profit for the first half year is expected to increase 150%-180%. The company recently issued 290 million shares and paid 510 million yuan at a price of 999 yuan/share and paid 510 million yuan. 100% of the shares of Suzhou Meishengyuan Information Technology Co., Ltd., which was acquired at a transaction price of 3.4 billion yuan, completed the transfer on May 13. Due to the steady operation of the company itself and the fact that Meishengyuan will be included in the scope of the company's consolidated statements in May, the company's 2016 semi-annual performance forecast showed that the year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was revised from 10%-40% to 150%-180%, and the net profit range was revised from 458.779 million to 58.391 million yuan to 104.268802 million yuan. Meishengyuan's strong strength has become a new driver for Dilong New Materials' performance. (1) The company is a leader in the mobile stand-alone game industry. In 2015, Meishengyuan accounted for about 1.05% of the Chinese mobile game market share and 4.86% of the Chinese mobile stand-alone game market share, making it a leader in the domestic mobile game industry. (2) In terms of distribution business, channel resources are becoming more and more abundant, and we are entering online game distribution. From January to September 2015, 175 channel providers and 416 SP service providers established business partnerships with Meishengyuan. Throughout the year, Meishengyuan collaborated with more than 100 channel providers to distribute more than 80 mobile stand-alone games. Furthermore, the company began to set up a joint operation business for mobile online games, and jointly operated “Breaking the Sky” with Beijing Yiyou Network Technology Co., Ltd. to enter the mobile online game distribution business. (3) Game R&D business continues to be consolidated. In terms of R&D business, the company's stand-alone game products are positioned in the medium to light casual game genre that currently has the largest audience, and has independently developed a series of premium mobile games. Among them, in 2014, the company's mobile game product “Happy Baby Rush Forward” won the “Best IP Adaptation Award” from the mobile operator; Pig Man's Ultimate Battle won the 2015 Jin Ling Award: Ten Thousand Favorite Mobile Standalone Games, the Gold Award jointly issued by Game Daily and the Game Club, and the top ten casual stand-alone mobile games of the Golden Entertainment Awards hosted by Gaming in 2015. (4) Abundant IP reserves. Meishengyuan plans to build a vertical IP ecosystem starting from the source of IP, starting with literature and animation. The company has strong IP support including Happy Baby, Ghost Blower, Piggy Man, and Shining Dad. The mobile game industry is growing rapidly. In terms of market size, the compound annual growth rate of mobile game revenue between 2008 and 2015 was as high as 130.25%. In 2015, the market size increased 87.2% year-on-year to 51.46 billion yuan, and the growth rate was far higher than PC client games (PC games) and PC browser games (page games); in terms of market share, the share of mobile game revenue in the entire game industry increased by 0.87% in 2008 to 38.24% in 2015. According to iResearch's forecast, in 2016-2018, the growth rate of China's mobile game market will remain within the 20%-35% range. Among them, the market size of mobile stand-alone games was 9.114 billion yuan in 2015, and is expected to expand to about 15 billion yuan in 2016. Investment suggestions: Meishengyuan's performance commitment: The net profit scale for 2015-2017 is: 1.8, 3.2, and 468 million, respectively. Based on the major revisions in the interim report, we believe that the probability of fulfilling the promise in 2016 is high. We assume that 2017 is also possible; we assume that Dilong's original decoration materials business had a net profit of 85.8 million yuan in 2015. We assume that the net profit achieved in 2016 and 2017 was 103 million and 120 million yuan respectively. After the consolidated report, the net profit for 2016-2017 exam preparation was 4.23 million and 588 million respectively; corresponding exclusions After that, the total share capital was 852 million shares (including the portion of issuing shares to purchase assets and raising supporting capital), EPS was 0.50 and 0.69, respectively, 27 and 19 times, respectively, and a total market value of 11.3 billion yuan (corresponding to 852 million shares), maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk factors: Performance promises have not been fulfilled due to the slowdown in mobile game growth and fierce competition.

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