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科力远(600478)点评:客车动力电池订单落地 定增扩产火力全开

申萬宏源研究 ·  Jun 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Incident: On the evening of June 28, 2016, the company announced that it had received orders for the purchase of nickel-metal hydride power batteries from CRRC Era totaling 573 units, with delivery expected to be completed by August 31, 2016. The ordered product is a matching nickel-metal hydride power battery customized by the company for the CRRC era for the 10.5 meter plug-in hybrid bus. Comment: The framework agreement forms an order, and the business plan is gradually implemented. On April 29, 2016, the company and CRRC Times signed a “Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement”. The two sides will combine national policies and market conditions and cooperate to vigorously promote 5,000 vehicles equipped with the company's power batteries on a global scale within the next three years. The company's 2016 sales plan for nickel-metal hydride batteries for buses is 1000 sets. The implementation of this order is an effective step forward for the company to complete this year's plan. Obtain funding for key national research and development projects to carry out plug-in hybrid performance optimization projects. On June 22, the High Technology Research and Development Center of the Ministry of Science and Technology publicized the 2016 project information to enter the review process for the key projects of the “New Energy Vehicles” of the national key research and development plan. The company received 55.26 million central R&D funds in the “Mainstream plug-in car hybrid performance optimization” project. Compared with Toyota's THS system, the company's CHS hybrid powertrain system, which has independent intellectual property rights, can better match plug-in hybrids. It is worth looking forward to its wide application in plug-in hybrids in the future, and receiving special financial funding from the state also confirms the company's technological leadership in this field. The additional release plan has been released, and the firepower is in full swing. On June 15, 2016, the company announced a private issuance plan. It plans to issue no more than 157 million shares of A-shares and raise no more than 1.5 billion yuan in total capital for Hunan Keba's 508 million power battery industrialization project, Changdeli's annual nickel foam project of 6 million square meters, and the CHS hybrid powertrain system research and development project, including the electric hybrid research and development project for hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles and the CHS Japan Research Institute project. The company's additional fund-raising projects will make breakthroughs in various areas such as production capacity, scope of application, and business regions, further ensuring the smooth progress of future business development. Profit forecast and valuation: The company has made breakthroughs in sales of electrodes, nickel-metal hydride battery packs, and CHS hybrid assembly systems in 2016. We have long been optimistic about the company's scarce value in the deep mixing field. Based on a more clear understanding of the company's operating conditions, we have lowered our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's operating income for the year 16-18 is 1.71 billion, 2.86 billion, and 5.68 billion, respectively, and the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company is 107 million, 167 million, and 446 million yuan. The EPS corresponding to stock dilution due to increased issuance is 0.08 yuan, 0.12 yuan, and 0.32 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to 2016 PE is 151 times, lowered to a “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: Order delivery is not as fast as expected

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