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云南城投(600239)深度研究:期待业绩好转 加码培育旅游地产

申萬宏源研究 ·  Jul 8, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment highlights: 15-year performance was unsatisfactory, and we expect significant improvements in '16. In 2015, the company achieved operating income of 4.01 billion yuan, an increase of only 1.7% over the previous year, and achieved net profit attributable to the parent company of 280 million yuan, a decrease of 36.8% over the previous year. The poor performance was mainly due to delays in project settlement in the Kunming region. Coupled with the company's lack of first-level development revenue in 2015, the decline in carry-over and the base effect combined to lead to poor performance in 15 years. The company's sales performance in 2015 was good, reflected in a sharp increase in advance payments, so it is expected that performance will improve significantly after 16 years of accelerated settlement. The company's regional diversification is on the right track. In 2015, the company achieved a foothold in Chongqing, and the Chongqing project contributed revenue for the first time. Currently, the company's business has expanded to southwest central cities and first-tier cities such as Chengdu, Chongqing, and Beijing, and has basically achieved a regional development strategy from “based in Kunming and layout in Yunnan” to “expand southwest and the whole country with Yunnan as the center”. The level of three-fee control has been raised, and direct financing is carried out using the capital market. The trend in the company's three fee levels has declined markedly in the past three years, demonstrating the improvement in the company's operating efficiency. At the end of 2015, the company's balance ratio reached 87.64%. The overall financing cost was: 9.46%, financing cost preference. In order to reduce the company's financial burden, the company has successfully issued 4.5 billion yuan of corporate bonds. The cost is greatly reduced compared to the company's overall financing costs. Due to high debt-side constraints, the company may carry out equity financing in the future. The company's current land reserves are mainly in the Yunnan region, and first-level development projects are expected to raise the company's land reserve level. The company has an equity construction area of 5.9 million square meters, the vast majority in the Yunnan region, with Kunming being the largest. The company is engaged in first-level land development and achieves development revenue through first-level and two-level linkage. Based on understanding the development plots, there is a high probability that the company will win the corresponding plot in the secondary market transaction, and the first-level development projects in progress are expected to provide the company with sufficient land reserves in the future. Relying on the Group's resources, we will strengthen residential real estate and increase tourism real estate. The Group's rich resources can form a good synergy with the company's main business. The company has now formed the “Rongcheng” urban complex and the “Dream Yunnan” series of tourist real estate. The “Cloud Meeting Guest” and “Dream Yunnan Timeshare Vacation System” have greatly increased the added value of the company's products. The company has achieved multiple tourist real estate layouts through investment and mergers and acquisitions. The region is unique in landscape, rich in tourism resources, and has good development prospects. Investment Ratings and Suggestions: First coverage, with an increase in holdings rating, target price of 5.6 yuan. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 6.42 billion yuan, 8.01 billion yuan, and 9.52 billion yuan, an increase of 60.0%, 24.8%, and 18.8% over the previous year, and achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 300 million yuan, 380 million yuan, and 4.7 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS: 0.28 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.44 yuan. Comparing the company's 2016 PE: 20x, we gave the company 20 times PE in 16 years, corresponding to a stock price of 5.6 yuan. RNAV estimated that the company was given a safe margin price of 5.84 yuan, which gave the company an increase in holdings rating.

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