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中化岩土(002542)点评:机场建设斩获大单 民航+通航双轮驱动

華泰證券 ·  Jul 7, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  It won the bid for the Meilan Airport expansion project. The synergy effect was positively demonstrated. Beijing Changdao, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, recently won the bid for the Haikou Meilan International Airport Phase II expansion sub-project. The winning bid amount was 481 million yuan, accounting for 24.90% of the company's 2015 revenue. The estimated construction period is from July 15, 2016 to December 31, 2017. Beijing Changdao Municipal Engineering Group is a leading airport runway construction enterprise in China. It has hosted major projects such as the Beijing Capital International Airport expansion project. In November 2015, the company acquired all of its shares in cash for 70 million yuan. In 2015, Beijing Changdao achieved consolidated revenue of 193 million yuan and net profit of 14 million yuan. Winning the bid for the Meilan Airport project this time is the first time that Beijing Changdao has won the bid for a major airport construction project outside of Beijing, showing the remarkable synergy between the two after the acquisition. The airport construction market will explode in the next five years, with an average annual investment of nearly 100 billion dollars. According to the “National Civil Airport Layout Plan 2020,” the total number of civil aviation transport airports will reach 244 by 2020, an increase of 34 over the end of 2015, with an average annual investment of about 80 billion dollars. In addition to 20 billion dollars in general aviation airport construction, an average annual investment of about 100 billion dollars in airport construction. The “2030 National Civil Transport Airport Layout Plan” requires 100 kilometers around airports to cover all central county areas by 2030, while by the end of 2014, the prefecture-level administrative units covered within 100 kilometers of China's transport airports were 87.2%, and the county-level administrative units were only 80.2%. There are still 40 prefecture-level administrative units and more than 600 counties that do not enjoy aviation services. There is still broad market space for airport construction in China in the next 15 years. Benchmarking BBA and building the first integrated domestic airport construction and operation company as a pure navigable airport target, it has the absolute advantage of extending from rock underground engineering to airport infrastructure. Through the acquisition of Changdao in Beijing and Zhongqing in Zhejiang, etc., it is actively entering the airport construction and operation business, targeting BBA, a leader in international navigation, with the aim of building the first stock in domestic airport construction and operation. The company plans to invest in the construction of 50-100 navigable airports over the next 5 years. Based on a single unit estimate of 200 million yuan, it can reach 10-20 billion yuan. The net profit rate for the construction process is more than 20%, the operating process is about 10%, and the total net profit of the company will be increased by 3 to 6 billion yuan. The company plans to increase profits through asset securitization to package and return capital to general aviation airports in advance, or refer to BBA to extend to the back end of the industry chain such as airport service operations, official commercial flights, and pilot training through acquisitions and new installations. There is plenty of room for imagination. Engineering services grew steadily, and media investment cultivated new growth points. In 2011-2015, the company's operating income rose from 264 million yuan to 1,931 million yuan, CAGR 64%; net profit from net profit increased from 50 million yuan to 227 million yuan, and CAGR 46%. Strong mergers and acquisitions targets in 2014, and Yuanfang contributed 66.57 million yuan and 6465 million yuan in net profit last year respectively. The geotechnical industry concentration is low, and the company's market share as a leading enterprise is still less than 1%. In the future, it is not ruled out that it will continue to exert scale effects through mergers and acquisitions to increase profit margins. The investment in Kyushu in 2015 confirmed an investment income of 1,8685 million yuan. This year, it is expected that it will benefit significantly from the screening of “Sea Animal Husbandry”. The first target price is 10 yuan. Maintaining the “buy” rating, the company's main geotechnical business profit in 2016 is expected to be 345 million yuan, and the IP media business profit is expected to be 25 million yuan. The total market value of the two is 16.5-18.4 billion yuan. The reasonable secondary market price range is 9.46-10.52 yuan (corresponding to 33-38 times PE in 2017), and the first target price is 10 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: General aviation business expansion falls short of expectations; integrated acquisitions in the geotechnical industry fall short of expectations; accounts receivable cannot be recovered risk.

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