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南天信息(000948)深度研究:治理与经营均在反转(FINTECH系列深度之三)

申萬宏源研究 ·  Jul 17, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points: The company's development strategy tends to focus after going through 4 stages. The 2013-2015 strategy focused on financial IT and entered a period of business growth. The landmark event in the software business is the case of the Postbank where “a small computer replaced a mainframe banking system based on an open platform and cloud computing technology”. It supports the operation of 39,000 postal bank branches nationwide, and the market is familiar with it. The Postbank is just the beginning. ICBC, the Agricultural Bank, the Bank of China, CCB, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank of China, the Bank Historical distractions can be confirmed by the development history of other high-quality financial IT companies. Investors are puzzled that Nantian Information's historical strategy has overlooked pharmaceuticals and the development process of IT products from IT product expansion to IT services and development of IT products. As for the first concern: it is not uncommon for financial IT companies to be hesitant when demand fluctuates in their fields. High-quality financial IT companies Hang Seng Electronics, Financial Securities Co., Ltd., New World, and Xinyada have all strayed from their main business. Regarding the second concern: Nantian Information is facing a situation similar to Taiji Co., Ltd., where IT services derived from IT products have increased business stickiness, so they are trying to return to products after the local IT sales environment has warmed up. The fixed increase optimizes the equity structure, and the management team is more youthful. 1) In the March 2016 issuance plan, the Industrial Investment Group subscribed for 1 billion yuan, and the total direct and indirect equity ratio increased by 11 percentage points. The Industrial Investment Group led major asset restructuring and capital management projects of more than 20 state-owned enterprises, including the restructuring and listing of Yunda 120 and the integration of the cement industry in the province. 2) The plan includes a 200 million yuan employee stock ownership plan, covering senior directors, supervisors, and core key personnel. The scope of incentives and management subscription ratio is higher than that of Radio and Television Express and Taiji shares. 3) According to public information, the newly appointed senior management is young and promising. In the future, technology finance will be developed based on financial IT. The July 12, 2016 announcement to acquire 90% of Caracal Technology, which owns the target of big data technology (analysis and processing of music data is the core business), signed a strategic cooperation with Remittance World in July 2015, and signed a strategic framework with the Kunming government to develop big data. It is speculated that the business derives from Fintech and intelligence is a leading signal of business derivation to Fintech and intelligence. For the first time, “increased holdings” ratings and profit forecasts were covered. Confidence comes from the double reversal of governance and management. The estimated operating income of the company in 2016-2018 was 22.60, 25.39 and 2,731 billion yuan, respectively. Net profit for 2016-2018 was $121 million, $52 million, and $57 million, respectively, and EPS was $0.09, $0.21, and $0.23, respectively. On July 12, 2016, the company announced that it intends to collect 90% of Caracal's shares. The target company promised to achieve net profit attributable to owners of the parent company in 2016, 2017 and 2018 after deducting non-recurring profit and loss, respectively. We expect Nantian Information to report consolidated profit of 72 million yuan in 2016, 72 million yuan, and 75 million yuan, respectively. We expect Nantian Information to report a combined profit of 72 million yuan in 2016, a combined profit of 120 million yuan in 2017, and preparation for the PE37 exam. The total share capital of the company's proposed non-public offering of no more than 73.62 million shares in March 2016 is 321 million shares, corresponding to 2016-2018 EPS of 0.07, 0.16 and 0.18 yuan, respectively. The company's current market capitalization is small, and under the prospect of a double reversal in governance and management, with reference to peer companies' valuations, it is conservatively estimated that the one-year target market capitalization space is 9.6 billion yuan, the target price is 38.8 yuan, and there is room for growth of 82%. Considering that the reversal in the company's endogenous management needs further confirmation and that the acquisition of Caracal is the beginning of enrichment of the company's underlying technology, the development of technology finance based on financial IT is currently being laid out, and the secondary coverage is given an “increase in ownership” rating.

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