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云意电气(300304):业绩延续向上拐点 期待智能电动双布局

國金證券 ·  Jul 12, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Analyze and determine the volume of product upgrades, and continue the trend of improving performance in the first quarter. With 2016H1, the company expects to achieve net profit of 56.317,800 yuan - 65.7041 million yuan, an increase of 20%-40% over the same period last year, continuing the trend of improving performance in the first quarter, which is basically in line with expectations. The main reasons for the improvement in performance are: 1) Driven by the preferential policy of halving the purchase tax for small-displacement passenger cars and the low automobile sales base during the same period last year, 2016H1 passenger car industry sales increased 12.1% year on year, and the recovery in the automobile market led to upstream demand; 2) the main products, vehicle regulators and rectifiers, achieved product upgrades to improve product profitability; 3) the gradual release of smart wipers to create new performance growth points to help the company achieve industrial upgrading. The main business ushered in an inflection point in performance, and future growth continues to be promising. The market share of the main products, automotive rectifiers and regulators, is as high as 20%; we believe that the company's main business reached an inflection point. The main highlights of the second half of the year's performance are: 1) Affected by factors such as the stock disaster, the passenger car industry's sales base is low. It is expected that in 2016 Q3, automobile sales will show a high growth rate of about 20% and steady growth in Q4; the company, as a leader in the industry segment, will also benefit. 2015Q3 2) Continuously extend upstream to rectifiers and regulators to achieve complete self-production of core components, improve product market competitiveness, and achieve product upgrades for high-power rectifiers and third-generation LIN bus regulators; the company plans to acquire Yunbo Technology for 22.6 million yuan, adding an annual profit of about 5 million yuan, speeding up the pace of market integration and increasing product market share. 3) After the release of high-power automotive diodes, import substitution will be achieved quickly; 4) The smart wiper system is expected to achieve operating revenue of 40 million yuan in 2016, creating a new performance growth point. The future is optimistic about the layout in the field of new energy vehicles and smart cars. The company acquired Shanghai Lixin to lay out the field of electronic control of NEV motors and target high-quality service providers for NEV drive motor systems; plans to increase the production capacity of 36,000 sets of NEV motor and control systems by 120 million yuan to accelerate the layout of the industry. The company established the Smart Vehicle and New Energy Vehicle Industry Fund to accelerate its deployment in the smart car and new energy vehicle sector through industrial investment. The investment proposal company is a leading domestic intelligent power controller. The strategy is clear. In the future, the main business is import substitution, product upgrades, upstream and downstream expansion, and epitaxial layout of new energy vehicles and smart vehicles, and is optimistic about laying out future development space for emerging businesses. Without considering the increase in performance brought about by mergers and acquisitions, EPS is estimated to be 0.53 and 0.76 yuan respectively in 16-17, maintaining the “buy” rating. Sales of venture vehicles continued to be sluggish; the company's emerging business layout fell short of expectations.

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