Investment points: participate in the metal trading center to link the main business to cultivate new profit growth points.
Main business situation. For the whole of 2015, the company achieved operating income of 2.35 billion yuan, an increase of 54% over the same period last year. In the same period, the company spent 2.15 billion yuan on operating costs, achieving a net profit of 93.01 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 8.4%. The net profit belonging to the parent company was 85.02 million yuan, an increase of 108.6% SPS 0.28 yuan over the same period last year. According to the latest half-year performance forecast, it is expected that the company's net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2016 will increase by about 200% over the same period last year. Throughout the distribution of operating income from 2011 to 2015, logistics business is the most stable source of income for the company in terms of absolute and relative values. The operating income of this business is about 880 million yuan in 2011-2014 and 780 million yuan in 2015. In 2015, the operating income of the supply chain business increased significantly, from 470 million yuan in 2014 to 1.47 billion yuan in 2015, which was the main driving force behind the sharp increase in revenue in 2015.
The modern integrated logistics giant participates in the metal trading platform. As part of the company's cross-industry strategic layout. In December 2014, the company jointly invested with Shanghai Ranrong Precious Metals Co., Ltd., Nanjing Yangtze River Development Co., Ltd., and Shanghai Qiansheng Precious Metals Co., Ltd. to establish Shanghai Yangtze River United Metal Trading Center Co., Ltd., with a stake of 20 million yuan. The metal exchange was officially launched in June 2015. At present, the trading center has seven types of trading, including silver, copper, fuel oil, palladium, aluminum, zinc and nickel. On July 22, 2015, Shanghai Yangtze River United Metal Trading Center and the Institute of International Finance of Shanghai Jiaotong University Education Group released China's first precious metals index-China Precious Metals Index.
Link the main business resources to significantly improve the profitability of the company. As the main body of the company's layout of the financial services sector, the investment income of participating in the metal trading center has become one of the important sources of corporate profits. In the second half of 2015, Changjiang Metal Trading Center achieved an operating income of 66.7763 million yuan and a net profit of 16.3333 million yuan. The profit contribution continued to expand in 2016, with the investment income of the Yangtze River Metal Trading Center accounting for about 68% of the company's first-quarter net profit in the first quarter of 2016. According to the company's "half-year 2016 results pre-increase announcement", the company's net profit in the first half of 2016 is expected to increase by about 200% compared with the same period last year, due to a sharp increase in net profit from the Yangtze River Metal Trading Center.
Profit forecast and rating. The revenue source of the company's main logistics business is stable, the operating income of supply chain services increased significantly in 2015, and the gross profit margin is at a high level in the industry. Under the strategy of cross-industry investment, the company's shareholding metal trading center officially opened in the second half of 2015, significantly improving the company's profitability, with net profit accounting for 68% of the company's total net profit in the first quarter of 2016. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2016 to 2018 is 0.45,0.53,0.61 respectively. Considering that the company participates in the metal trading center and adds financial attributes, the profit of the metal trading center is estimated to account for 20%, which is valued at 85 times PE. The shipping business itself is valued at 45 times PE, with a target price of 23.85 yuan within 6 months. Increase the rating.
Uncertainty analysis. The risk of compliance with the operation of the exchange and the risk of a decline in the popularity of the metal trading market.