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亚太药业(002370)深度报告:打造CRO资源整合平台

國信證券 ·  Jul 19, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Traditional pharmaceutical companies are moving into the CRO field, and it is expected that in the future, epitaxial integration companies will continue to acquire Xinshengyuan to enter the CRO field based on the current pharmaceutical industry environment. In the future, it is expected that they will continue to build a CRO resource integration platform through endogenous business expansion and epitaxial acquisitions. Formulation formulation process optimization work was initiated in '12. When the CFDA first proposed a consistency evaluation in '12, the drug capsule incident paid close attention to product quality and initiated secondary development of already marketed products, including improving quality standards (optimization of prescriptions, process, etc.), so preparations for the consistency evaluation were sufficient. Currently, more than half of the products that need to be evaluated have completed pharmaceutical evaluations, and other unfinished varieties are in the process of active research and evaluation. The company's pharmaceutical products market is large, but the competitive pattern is poor. This consistency evaluation provides a good opportunity to overtake cars at corners. The acquisition of Xinshengyuan and entered the CRO industry to acquire Xinshengyuan at a price of 900 million yuan. Xinshengyuan executives also participated in additional distribution, tied to the interests of listed companies. As a professional CRO service provider, Xinshengyuan has strong government affairs capabilities, and has cooperated with over 100 CRO organizations to serve a total of 550 R&D projects. We currently expect the current order amount to exceed 2 billion yuan. With the current growth in demand in the CRO industry and the gradual maturation of incubated projects, Xinshengyuan's four-year performance in gambling is expected to be exceeded. Risks suggest that the company's pharmaceutical products did not meet expectations and bid price reductions in various provinces; the risk of performance fluctuations due to uncertainty about the progress of the Xinshengyuan project; and the failure of the acquisition and integration. For the first time, the “increase in holdings” rating predicts that the company's operating income for 16-18 was 953/11.30/1,331 million yuan, respectively, net profit was 1.72/2.12/257 million yuan, and diluted EPS was 0.64/0.79/0.96 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE53/43/35x. The company's original chemical formulation business has recovered to a normal level after experiencing the negative effects of the previous anti-drug and toxic capsule incident. In 2015, it began to actively deploy upstream in the pharmaceutical R&D industry chain and enter the CRO field. At a time when active R&D innovation and consistent evaluations in the medical industry are driving a huge increase in demand in the CRO industry. At the same time, drug review supervision is being tightened and the CRO industry is undergoing major integration, the company is expected to use New Sources as a platform to quickly build a comprehensive and three-dimensional comprehensive drug and medical device R&D service platform through endogenous expansion and epitaxial acquisition integration. Covered for the first time, a “gain” rating was given.

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