Basic conclusion
The company has platform attribute: the company has constructed "proprietary + third party + supply chain finance" e-commerce platform and "hard egg" platform. GMV (commodity trading volume) has a strong growth, reaching 13.9 billion GMV in 2015, a growth rate of 65.48%. By 2020, it is expected to exceed 100 billion with a compound growth rate of 48%. In 2015, China has grown into the world's second largest IC procurement market, with purchases worth more than US $50.3 billion, accounting for 15% of the world's total. this proportion will increase in the future with the release of innovative services such as smart home, Internet of things, security surveillance, automotive electronics, medical electronics and so on. The company has become the largest IC distributor in China, and the business of the two core platforms cooperate with each other. GMV is expected to maintain rapid growth and has obvious platform attributes.
Build two platform ecological closed loops and share the feast of intelligent hardware gluttonous feast: the intelligent hardware market grew by nearly 300% in 2015 and is expected to grow by 30% to more than 50 billion yuan by 2016. every service link in its industrial chain has formed a complete vertical industrial ecology, and the company's five core business lines around the two platforms have been basically completed. Two major closed loops have been formed: one is the O2O closed loop, which combines online marketing of intelligent hardware products with offline experience libraries to deeply tap the changes in consumer demand. The other is B2B2C closed loop, which provides IC distribution services for enterprise customers through in-depth cooperation with upstream customers, carries out market activities for its intelligent and innovative products through the existing huge fan base and experience hall of hard eggs, directly provides enterprise services for enterprises and experience services for consumers, and the two major platforms channel each other. The company's 2016Q1 has 11428 small business customers, and the number of corporate users has grown by 94.42%, contributing 57% of GMV. In addition, relying on the company's supply chain advantages, bundling a large number of upstream brand suppliers, docking upstream and downstream enterprises, providing enterprises with big data, supply chain finance and other value-added services, customer stickiness and transaction frequency have been greatly improved. the company will share the gluttonous feast of the intelligent hardware industry.
Create five ecological subsystems, based on Gaoyuan: the hard-egg platform is an enterprise-level service platform with "supply chain" as the core and IC components as the entrance, which solves the problems of suppliers, designs, software patents, hardware facilities, investment and financing, and connects different service providers and manufacturers. After obtaining the mainland micro-loan license, the supply chain finance business will become another growth driving force of the company. Hard egg ecology vertically landing, creating smart cars, smart homes, new materials, robots and big health five big sub-ecology, to provide enterprise-level services for innovative small and medium-sized enterprises in various vertical fields 2016Q1 hard guy contributed 400 million yuan of GMV, accounting for 10.3% of the total GMV, compared with 8.7% in the fourth quarter of 2015. In the future, with the successively landing and securitization of the five major businesses focused on the hard egg platform, the company's GMV and valuation will be greatly improved. Diversified cash-out models make the company's development prospects worth looking forward to.
Investment advice and valuation
We predict that the company will achieve revenue of 13 billion, 17.4 billion and 22.9 billion respectively in 2016, 2017 and 2018, corresponding to 0.34, 0.46 and 0.61 yuan per share in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. Taking into account the first domestic market share and growth of the Ketong core city e-commerce platform, we give the company's e-commerce platform 23 times the average PE, calculate the market valuation of the hard egg platform at a discount, and come to the conclusion that the overall valuation of Ketong core city is about 17.405 billion, corresponding to the target price of HK $14.80 per share, giving the "overweight" rating for the first time.
Risk.
The domestic electronics manufacturing industry is depressed; the growth rate of corporate users is slowing down; the implementation of tough projects is not as expected; the risk of bad debts of small and medium-sized enterprises.