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花王股份(603007)深度研究:深耕园林绿化的民营企业 上市助力成长加速

海通證券 ·  Jul 20, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: private garden enterprises focusing on road greening and municipal gardens. The company is mainly engaged in landscaping construction and design business in the fields of municipal gardens, tourist landscapes, road greening and real estate landscapes. At the same time, it also has a small amount of flower seedling planting business. Among them, road greening and municipal gardening contribute nearly 90% of the company's revenue. Since 2011, the company has undertaken more than 50 individual landscaping projects with a cost of more than 10 million yuan, and has rich experience in the construction of large and medium-sized projects; East China and North China regions contribute the company's main revenue, accounting for about 62% and 28% of the revenue structure in 2015, respectively. Chairman Xiao Guoqiang is the actual controller of the company by holding 89.77% of Huawang Group's shares and holding 41.70% of Huawang's shares after listing (calculated based on the issuance of 33.35 million shares). PPP policies have been gradually improved, and project implementation has been accelerated, and the garden industry has benefited significantly. The garden industry faced some demand pressure after the local government debt audit, but PPP will effectively boost industry demand by improving industry investment and financing mechanisms. With the increasing improvement of the PPP coordination management mechanism and related laws and regulations, the subsequent implementation of PPP is expected to accelerate. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, as of the end of June, the total investment in warehousing projects reached 10.6 trillion yuan, and the implementation rate of warehousing projects reached 23.8%, up 2.1 percentage points from the end of March. We believe that 16-17 will be a golden period for PPP development. After the company's listing, it will bring about an increase in financing capacity and a significant increase in brand awareness, which is expected to significantly benefit from new changes in the industry. The scale is relatively small, and the listing helps accelerate growth. Compared with listed garden companies in the same industry, the size of the company is relatively small. In 2013-2015, the company added contract amounts of $1,164 million, $65 million, and $363 million respectively, which were highly volatile; revenue was 573 million, 510 million and 539 million yuan, respectively, and net profit of $556.65 million and 67.8061 million yuan respectively. In 2016, Q1 revenue was 55 million yuan, down 28.46% year on year; net profit was 4.89 million yuan, down 29.57% year on year. Capital and management are the core competitive factors in the garden industry. After the company goes public, its financing channels will be greatly expanded, and performance is expected to accelerate. The BT business accounts for a high proportion, resulting in more receivables and inventory. The company's BT business model revenue in 2013-2015 accounted for 16.99%, 49.66% and 52.91% of revenue, respectively. The size of receivables related to BT business accounted for 12.25%, 28.86%, and 41.74% of total assets at the end of the period, while the total amount of assets (receivables+inventory) related to construction during the same period was 532 million, 723 million and 845 million respectively. The total assets at the end of the period were 72.87%, 79.45% and 86.09%, showing an upward trend year by year. The capital raised is used to expand the market across regions and improve the level of design research and development. It is proposed to publicly issue no more than 10,000 shares, with a net capital raised of about 380 million yuan. It will be used to invest in the establishment of landscape engineering branches and supporting research institutes in Haikou, Tianjin and Chengdu to increase the development of garden markets in South China, North China and Southwest China, while further improving the company's design level and innovation capabilities, and enhancing the market competitiveness of related business undertakings. The reasonable value range is 19.84 yuan - 22.68 yuan. According to the calculation of the 33.35 million shares issued this time, it is estimated that in 16-17 it will be 0.57 yuan and 0.70 yuan respectively. According to the IPO rules, the company's issuance price is 12.44 yuan ((net financing amount+issuance fee) /issuance volume), corresponding to about 21.94 times PE in 2016. The company is a new stock, and the market value is too small, giving the company a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 35-40 times in 16 years, corresponding to a reasonable price range, and is recommended for purchase. Risk warning. The risk of falling orders, and the risk of market development falling short of expectations.

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