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人民网(603000)点评:权威媒体品牌优势突出 互联网售重启预期打开公司想象空间

海通證券 ·  Jul 21, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points: Outstanding brand advantages, continuing to build authoritative media. People's Online is a large-scale news-based online information exchange platform built by “People's Daily”, one of the top ten newspapers in the world. Netizens cover more than 200 countries and regions, and the brand's popularity, influence, and credibility have unique advantages in the Internet industry. The audience of the website operated by the company and the company's brand image determine that advertisers are mostly large, well-known enterprises or government units, establishing a unique channel advantage for the company's business. In addition to the Chinese version, People's Online also has 7 ethnic minority languages and 9 foreign language versions. It publishes a variety of information to the world 24 hours a day as soon as possible, covering various fields such as politics, economy, society, and culture. People's Online will continue to be one of the most authoritative media in China, far superior to other media in terms of credibility and authority. The advertising business was adjusted, and Internet stars became an additional driving force. In 2015, People's Online carried out industry adjustments to the advertising business department, forming a new pattern of 9 industries, 3 divisions, and 2 business centers. Amidst fierce market competition, it achieved steady growth in advertising and promotion business. The advertising business revenue was 727 million yuan, and revenue increased 27.24% year on year. The company purchased 40% of NetStar's shares in early 2015, and NetStar also reported an increase of 122 million yuan. With the addition of Internet Stars, the advertising business will attract new growth impetus. People's Online won the bid for Fucai's overall marketing project, and expectations for the restart of the Internet Lottery have increased. On July 7, the company announced that it won the bid for the “China Welfare Lottery Distribution and Management Center Telephone and Internet Sales Overall Marketing Promotion Project for Welfare Lottery”. Although the project that won the bid this time does not directly sell Internet lottery related businesses, it is an important step in the relaxation of the Internet lottery policy. The successful bid for the project highlights the company's leading position and market influence in the field of online lottery sales. Meanwhile, the State Administration of Sports recently officially issued the “13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Sports Industry”, which for the first time made it clear that sports lottery is one of the eight key industries. We believe that the legalization, orchestration, and standardization of the Internet lottery market is the common goal of the government and industry and the long-term trend in the future. Currently, there are strong expectations for a policy restart. The Australian Lottery Network, a subsidiary of People's Online, had always had the highest share of the domestic Internet lottery ticket sales market until now, contributing 18% of the company's revenue in 2014. In the future, once the Internet lottery policy is restarted, the company is expected to continue to take advantage of the policy trend and improve fundamental expectations with the promising prospects of rebuilding the online lottery business, and the company's performance will increase significantly. Profit forecast and valuation: The company is an online media platform and media national team owned by the People's Daily. The company's main media advertising, mobile value-added, and information services businesses are supported by a good brand reputation and social influence, and its performance stability is strong. Based on this, we expect the company's 2016-2018 EPS to be 0.27, 0.35, and 0.39 yuan respectively, giving the company 65 times the PE valuation in '17, a target price of 22.75 yuan, and a rating to increase holdings. Risk warning: the risk that the restart of the Internet lottery policy is slower than expected; the risk that new business expansion will be blocked; the risk that the macroeconomic downturn will affect advertising revenue.

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